[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 021434
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
1100 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016

Satellite imagery and coastal radar data indicate that the low
pressure area that was formerly Bonnie has developed persistent
organized convection near the center.  Based on this, the system is
again being designated as a tropical depression.  The initial
intensity of 25 kt and central pressure of 1009 mb are based on
surface data near the center, along with a satellite intensity
estimate of 25 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is 055/5.  Bonnie is moving along the
southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone
should move generally east-northeastward to eastward with a gradual
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days.  The
track forecast follows that of the various consensus models, which
are tightly clustered.

The center of Bonnie will be moving over warm Gulf Stream waters
for the next 12-24 hours while the vertical wind shear is light.
Thus, the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during
that time.  After that, increasing shear and sea surface
temperatures below 24C should cause Bonnie to again degenerate to a
remnant low, with the system dissipating by 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 35.1N  75.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 35.3N  74.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 35.8N  72.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 36.1N  69.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z 36.1N  66.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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