[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 17N32W
to a 1010 mb low near 10N32W to 07N32W. Wave and low are moving
west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a
700 mb low as depicted in the global models and is embedded
within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water Imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are from 07N-13N between 30W-37W.

Tropical wave in the E Caribbean extends along 60W from 10N-22N
moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides
with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is
embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water Imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are over the E Caribbean from 12N-20N
between 58W-71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N16W to the 1010 mb low near 10N32W to 08N41W
where the ITCZ begins and continues to 10N50W to 11N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the monsoon
trough along the coast of western Africa from 10N-18N between
15W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico near 27N86W.
5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are noted around the high. Scattered
showers remain over the E Gulf of Mexico and W Cuba from 22N-29N
between 81W-85W. In the upper levels...an upper level high is
centered over the NE Gulf near 28N87W. Strong subsidence is over
the central Gulf with upper level moisture elsewhere. Expect
over the next 24 hours for the surface high to be replaced by a
surface ridge. Also expect an upper level low presently over the
the Bahamas to advect over to S Florida with increased
convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. 10-25 kt
tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds just south of Cuba.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW
Caribbean from 10N-12N between 75W-84W. In the upper levels, an
upper level low is centered over the central Bahamas near
23N76W. Scattered showers are over the central Caribbean north
of 15N between 72W-88W. Expect the tropical wave to be the
dominate weather producer over the Caribbean Sea for the next
four days.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently, isolated showers and possible thunderstorms are over
Hispaniola. The tropical wave over the E Caribbean will produce
convection over Hispaniola Sun through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the central Bahamas from 25N79W to
21N79W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the
trough axis. A 1025 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 33N49W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level low is centered over the central Bahamas near 23N76W. An
upper level high is centered N of Puerto Rico near 22N65W.
Another upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic
near 30N42W. Expect the Bahama upper level low to move to S
Florida in 24 hours with convection. Also expect the tropical
wave along 32W to move west with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA
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