[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 17N32W
to a 1009 mb low near 12N29W. Wave and low are moving west 10 to
15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb
trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a
surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are from 8N-15N between 27W-34W.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 55W
from 12N-21N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models
and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are within 90 nm of 17N between
the wave and 64W including the Leeward Islands.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 19N16W and continues along 15N19W through the 1009
mb low near 12N29W 10N35W to 12N45W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 13N54W. Clusters of isolated moderate convection
are from 7N-12N between 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge is anchored over the northeast Gulf near 28N86W
extending a ridge axis southwest to the coast of Mexico near
Tuxpan. An inverted upper trough is inland over Mexico with a
surface trough just off the coast of Mexico from Tuxpan to
inland over south Mexico near 18N94W generating scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 60 nm along
the coast south of 23N west of 95W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are have developed inland over the
Florida peninsula and are now moving into the Gulf waters within
60 nm along the coast south of 29N to the Florida Keys. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are across the north Gulf north of 27N
between Florida and Texas. A surface ridge extends from the west
Atlantic across central Florida to a 1019 mb high near 27N85W
continuing to the Texas coast. The surface ridge will persist
into early next week. A trough will move off the west coast of
the Yucatan peninsula each evening into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper trough extends into the central Caribbean from the west
Atlantic across east Cuba to 12N78W supporting a surface trough
that extends from 18N75W to 12N76W. Scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 14N to over the
Greater Antilles between 71W-80W. The area of the west Caribbean
is under diffluence aloft between the upper trough over the
central Caribbean and the upper ridge over the the Gulf of
Mexico. This is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 15N to over Cuba west of 80W to over the
Yucatan peninsula and Central America including the Yucatan
Channel. A weak 1011 mb low is along the coast of Panama near
9N78W with scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of 11N between Colombia and Cost Rica. The
tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles is generating
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms north
of 13N west of 65W to over the Leeward and Virgin Islands moving
toward Puerto Rico. This wave will bring locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, then spread over Hispaniola tonight through Sunday.
The tropical wave has brought fresh to strong winds and building
seas north of 15N east of the Leeward. These conditions will
shift across the Leeward and Virgin Islands tonight into Sunday
continuing across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday into Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently, isolated showers and possible thunderstorms are
developing across the west portion of the Dominican Republic and
Haiti this evening. The upper trough will shift westward away
from the island on Sunday. However, moisture and accompanying
showers from the tropical wave west of the Lesser Antilles will
move in from the east late tonight into Sunday continuing west
encompassing the island into Monday. Expect showers, possibly
heavy to begin early Sunday and continue into next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough is over the west Atlantic extending from east
Cuba to 32N70W supporting a surface trough that extends from
27N76W to 22N77W with scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of 27N west of 74W to over Florida and into
the Straits of Florida, with scattered showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms from 27N-31N between 70W-79W. A surface
ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1029
mb high over the Azores with a ridge axis extending through a
1027 mb high near 34N46W continuing along 32N55W 29N71W across
central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridge will
persist into next week. The tropical wave east of the Lesser
Antilles will move through the southwest Atlantic north of the
Greater Antilles into next week accompanied by strong winds and
building seas that will shift west across the Bahamas late
Sunday into early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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