[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic with axis that
extends from 15N18W to 07N19W, moving west 10 to 15 kt over the
past 12 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough south of
12N as depicted in the global models and is embedded within broad
area of abundant moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N
between 12W-21W.

A tropical wave is moving across the east Tropical Atlantic west
of the Cape Verde Islands with axis from 18N32W to 10N30W, moving
west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a
700 mb low/trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded
within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the
southern portion of the wave mainly south of 12N between 26W-32W.

A tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis that extends
from 17N44W to 10N45W, moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24
hours. This wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted
in the global models. No significant convection is related to this
wave as a Saharan airmass prevails in its environment inhibiting
any activity.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis
extending from 21N76W to 12N77W, moving west 15 to 20 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb
trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a
surge of moisture north of 15N as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are observed across the northern portion of the wave
affecting eastern Cuba and Jamaica north of 17N between 75W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 19N16W and continues to 09N48W where the ITCZ
begins and continues to South America near 10N61W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical waves, isolated showers are
observed within 100 nm south of the Monsoon Trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An inverted upper-level trough dominates the Gulf of Mexico with
axis extending from the Yucatan Peninsula to near 30N89W. This
feature is supporting isolated moderate convection across the
whole basin. At the surface, a 1019 mb high is centered over
northern Florida near 30N83W extending its ridge across the
northern portion of the basin. A surface trough prevails across
the Bay of Campeche supporting scattered moderate convection
mainly west of 96W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow across the Gulf waters. Expect during
the next 24 hours for the surface ridge to persist. The upper
level trough will move west enhancing convection across the
western Gulf. A thermal trough will move off the west coast of
the Yucatan peninsula each evening through the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. The eastern portion of the
upper-level trough that extends across the Gulf of Mexico is
supporting isolated convection across the western Caribbean mainly
west of 83W. The Monsoon Trough extends north of Panama with
scattered moderate convection south 10N between 78W-83W. Aside
from the convection generating by the tropical wave across Cuba,
Jamaica and their adjacent waters, fair weather prevails across
the central and east Caribbean as Saharan dust and dry air
dominate these areas. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades across the basin with the strongest ones prevailing just
north of Colombia south of 16N between 69W-76W. The tropical wave
to continue moving west during the next 24 hours with convection.
Little change is expected elsewhere. The next tropical wave will
enter the east Caribbean by late Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed across the western
portion of the island at this time induced by diurnal heating.
This weather pattern will continue through the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the Tropical Atlantic.
Please refer to the section above for details. A 1020 mb surface
high is centered across the west Atlantic near 28N74W. To the
east, a stationary front was analyzed from 28N62W to 32N54W.
Isolated convection is observed along this boundary. A surface
ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a
1032 mb high near 42N26W. Little change is expected through the
next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net