[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
WWWW UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 23N
from 9N-17N moving west moving west near 10 kt over the past 12
hours. The latest scatterometer pass indicates the low is no
longer on the surface. There is a mid level low observed on the
visible satellite imagery. Wave coincides with a 700 mb low as
depicted in the global models and within a high amplitude surge
of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 9N-13N between 20w-
26W.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along
34W/35W from 9N-18N moving west near 10 kt over the past 24
hours. The latest scatterometer pass and visible satellite
imagery indicates the low is no longer on the surface. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb low/trough as depicted in the global
models and within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection or
shower activity.

Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 65W/66W from
11n-22N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models
and within a surge of moisture north of 15N as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm
east and 120 nm west of the wave axis north of the Greater
Antilles to 22N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 17N16W and continues along 12N22W 13N28W 10N37W to
8N48W where the ITCZ begins and continues to South America near
8N59W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 3N-8N
between 35W-42W. Clusters of isolated moderate convection are
from 5N-9N east of 18W to the coast of Africa.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge anchored over west Texas extends a ridge axis
southeast across the Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Channel. An
upper low is centered along the Louisiana coast near Atchafalaya
Bay extending an upper trough southeast to 28N85W and is
supporting a surface trough that extends from Mobile Bay, Alabama
through a weakening 1013 mb low near 30N89W to off the Texas
coast near 28N96W. This is generating scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms from 26N-29N between 90W-96W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 27N
west of 96W to inland over Texas and north of a line from
Apalachicola, Florida to 27N90W. A shortwave upper trough
extends along the coast of Mexico from Tuxpan to just west of
Tampico generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
within 60 nm along the coast from Tuxpan to Cabo Rojo. Isolated
showers and possible thunderstorms cover the Straits of Florida
south of the Florida Keys east of 83W. A surface ridge extends
from the west Atlantic to over Florida ans the far east Gulf of
Mexico. The surface trough and upper trough will continue to
produce showers and thunderstorms over the northwest and north-
central Gulf through tonight. The surface ridge will build west
across the Gulf tonight through Saturday night. A thermal trough
will move off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula each
evening through the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An inverted upper trough extends from over Central America near
16N87W west to over the far southeast Gulf of Mexico covering
the west Caribbean west of 78W. This is generating clusters of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 18N
westof74W to over Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula. The monsoon
trough extends from Colombia south of Panama generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm along
the coast of Panama to Nicaragua south of 12N west of 80W.
Isolated showers are possible over the east Caribbean within 180
nm either side of the tropical wave.  The tight pressure
gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower
pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade
winds across the south-central Caribbean through the end of the
week. The tropical wave will move into the central Caribbean
Wednesday, the west Caribbean Thursday, then over Central America
Thursday night. Thew next tropical wave will enter the east
Caribbean this weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are moving inland over the
east portion of the Dominican Republic this afternoon. This
activity is associated with the tropical wave moving through the
east Caribbean. The tropical wave will move across the island
through Wednesday. The showers and thunderstorms will spread
west across the island through this evening and persist through
Wednesday with skies clearing Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge anchored along the coast of North Carolina
extends over the west Atlantic west of 64W except in the far
southwest Atlantic where an inverted upper trough extends across
west Cuba south of 25N west of 76W. This upper trough is
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
south of 25N between 76W-80W. A narrow upper trough is north of
the 30N between 53W-58W supporting a stationary front that
extends through 32N54W to 29N59W then dissipates to 28N63W with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm
southeast of the entire front. Otherwise, high pressure
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic with a surface ridge
extending from a 1031 mb high northwest of the Azores through
32N45W south of the above front to a 1021 mb high near 27N67W
then continuing west to over Florida. Surface ridge will persist
through Thursday night becoming stronger late in the week. Fresh
to strong winds will pulse off the north coast of Hispaniola
each evening through midweek.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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