[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A gale warning is in effect today for the waters of Canarias.
Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, listed
under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND
LARGE...METAREA II, or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM
/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/ BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 21N36W to 06N37W, moving west near 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb
trough as depicted in the global models and is within a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
Despite this, no deep convection is observed at this time as
Saharan dust dominates the area.

A tropical wave is moving across western Caribbean with axis from
20N80W to 10N81W, moving west at 10-15 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave is within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is
observed to the west of the wave's axis between 81W-87W enhanced
by the presence of an upper-level inverted trough.

A tropical wave is moving across the Bay of Campeche with axis
from 22N91W to 12N92W, moving west near 10 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in
the global models. Isolated moderate convection is observed with
this wave affecting southern Mexico as well as the adjacent
Pacific waters between 90W-95W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N17W and continues to 09N37W where the ITCZ
begins and continues to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails within 200 nm south of the Monsoon Trough mainly east of
32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is moving over the Yucatan Peninsula with
scattered convection. Please refer to the section above for
details. A diffluent flow aloft supports isolated convection
across the eastern Gulf east of 88W. At the surface, a ridge
extends across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high centered over
the western Atlantic near 35N61W. Scatterometer data depicts a
light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the basin. Expect during
the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west
enhancing convection over the Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging
will prevail elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. An inverted upper-level
trough extends across Central America through the Gulf of Honduras
to over south-central Cuba which combined with the tropical wave
is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 80W.
The remainder of the basin is dominated by dry air and Saharan
dust which is inhibiting deep convection east of 80W. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh trades across most of the basin
except south of 16N between 72W-76W where fresh to strong winds
prevail. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to
continue moving west with convection. Dry weather will spread
across the basin as Saharan dust dominates the area.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. This pattern
will prevail through the next 24 hours as Saharan dust and dry
air dominates the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving over the eastern Atlantic. Please refer
to the section above for details. An upper-level trough extends
across the western Atlantic. This feature combined with a
diffluent flow just to the east of the trough axis and a surface
trough from 28N74W to 26N79W are supporting scattered moderate
convection from 21N-30N between 69W-78W. A surface ridge prevails
across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1030 mb high
centered near 39N34W. Little change is expected within the next
24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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