[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: in the area of the Monsoon Trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W, from southeastern
Cuba, across eastern Jamaica, into the southwestern corner of the
Caribbean Sea, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong was covering the area from 08N to
11N between 76W and 78W at 22/0915 UTC. That precipitation has
weakened and any remnant precipitation is from 11N to 12N between
77W and 78W. The monsoon trough extends from 08N75W in Colombia
beyond 07N83W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong from 11N southward between 80W and
land. Other convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N
northward between 77W and 83W, and from 19N northward from 83W
westward.

A Yucatan Peninsula tropical wave is along 88W/89W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. No significant deep
convective precipitation.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 14N17W to 12N19W, to 12N30W and 07N40W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N40W to 05N47W. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong within 120 NM on either side of 08N14W
10N20W 13N25W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within
60 NM to 120 NM on either side of 09N24W 07N35W 05N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 85W
eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is sweeping across Florida from
the Atlantic Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 86W eastward.

An upper level trough extends from El Salvador into the
northwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea, toward central Cuba.
Some of the cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the trough
reaches the Yucatan Channel and the coastal waters of the northern
Yucatan Peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 24N southward between 85W
and 88W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the southwestern corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. A diurnal surface trough is along 94W/95W
from 23N southward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 22N southward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico. The surface pressure gradient is comparatively weak from
24N southward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
elsewhere.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Lafayette. Rainshowers
and thunder in Slidell, and in the New Orleans metropolitan area
about the eastern side and the southern side of Lake
Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: Rainshowers and thunder have been
observed in the southernmost parts of the state, between Louisiana
and Alabama. ALABAMA: MVFR in Fort Rucker. Rain in Gulf Shores.
Rainshowers and thunder in the Mobile metropolitan area. FLORIDA:
Rainshowers and thunder at the Naval Air Station in Pensacola.
Rain at the Tyndall AFB in Panama City. MVFR in Marianna.
Rainshowers and thunder in Brooksville. Overcast sky at 3300 feet
at the MacDill AFB.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from El Salvador into the
northwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea, toward central Cuba.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate in the northwestern
corner of the area.

A tropical wave is along 76W/77W. Please refer to the Tropical
Waves section for more information about the wave.

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is near 12N74W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.24 in Veracruz
in Mexico, 0.01 in San Juan and in Bermuda.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is near 12N74W. Upper
level W to NW wind flow is crossing Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
Dominican Republic: VFR in Barahona, Santo Domingo, and in Punta
Cana, in Santiago and in Puerto Plata. MVFR in La Romana.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that W to
NW wind flow will move across the area during day one and into the
early part of day two. A cyclonic circulation center approaches
Hispaniola from the northeast, spreading cyclonic wind flow across
the area during the rest of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 MB shows that NE wind flow will move across the area. An
Atlantic Ocean anticyclonic circulation center will be about 360
NM to the NE of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour forecast
period. The Atlantic Ocean anticyclonic circulation center that
will be affecting Hispaniola at 500 MB also will be affecting the
same area at 700 MB. Expect SE wind flow at the start of day one,
changing to NE wind flow for much of the next two days. An
inverted trough will move across the area during the end of day
two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N72W, across Florida, to
27N84W in the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest of the line that passes
through 30N60W, to the Windward Passage. A stationary front is
along 31N between 60W and 73W. A surface trough 58W/59W from 27N
northward. A second surface trough is along 29N63W 28N71W 26N75W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong to the northwest of the line that passes
through 30N60W to 22N76W near Cuba.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
23N northward between Africa and 54W. A 1032 MB high pressure
center is near 41N25W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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