[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong from
03N to 10N between 24W and 39W, most probably including some ITCZ-
related precipitation also.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N southward between 52W
and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The monsoon trough is
along 07N75W in Colombia, beyond 08N84W in the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 05N to 10N
between 74W and 77W in Colombia, and from 10N to 12N between 78W
and 81W in the water. isolated moderate elsewhere to the south of
the line that runs from 16N84W to 15N80W to 11N75W

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 11N20W, to 08N30W, and 06N40W. The ITCZ is along
06N40W 05N52W in French Guiana. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 08N
between 13W and 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level cyclonic circulation center that was in Mexico
24 hours ago remains inland. Cyclonic wind flow covers that part
of the Gulf of Mexico that is to the southwest of the line that
runs from the Deep South of Texas along the border with Mexico,
to the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the area that is to
the southeast of the line that runs from 27N82W along the Florida
coast, to 24N88W, to the northwestern corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 26N northward from 85W eastward. isolated
moderate elsewhere to the northeast of the line that runs from the
northeastern corner of the Yucatan Peninsula to the upper Texas
Gulf coast.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico that is between Florida and Texas. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow also covers the easternmost part of the southwestern
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: numerous
strong from 18N to 19N between 91W and 92W, in comparatively broad
surface low pressure/with a transient and diurnal surface trough.

A surface ridge passes through: northeastern Florida, to the
Gulf of Mexico coastal border of Alabama and Mississippi, to
24N93W, and to 17N97W in Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR...NONE.

IFR...NONE.

MVFR...KBBF and KGHB.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to MISSISSIPPI: VFR/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA: IFR in
Evergreen. FLORIDA: VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the northwestern corner of
the area. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N
northward from 74W westward.

Upper level SE wind flow covers the southwestern corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Some of that wind flow eventually becomes
anticyclonic as it curves more toward Jamaica and beyond, eastward
and northeastward, into the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The rest of
the SE wind flow moves into Central America. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong in the southwestern corner of the
Caribbean sea, from 13N southward between 79W and the southeastern
corner of Nicaragua. A surface trough is along 07N76W in Colombia,
beyond 09N86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Other isolated moderate
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea from 16N southward from 75W westward.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.02 in
Bermuda.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level northerly wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. An
upper level inverted trough is on top of the islands of the
eastern Caribbean Sea.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 17/2300
UTC: scattered cumulonimbus clouds/VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...for Barahona as of 18/0000 UTC: broken low level
clouds/MVFR. Santo Domingo: VFR/NO CEILINGS. La Romana and Punta
Cana: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago: broken low level clouds/MVFR.
Puerto Plata: few cumulonimbus clouds...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that N
wind flow will transition into part cyclonic wind flow with an
inverted trough/part E to SE wind flow to the north of the inverted
trough, for day one. Day two will start with E to SE wind flow,
and then it will become cyclonic again with the same inverted
trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE to E wind
flow will transition into SE wind flow by the end of day one. SE
wind flow will cover the area for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 MB shows that day one will consist of NE wind flow for the
first half of day one, followed by an inverted trough for the rest
of day one. with NE wind flow at the end of day one. Day two will
start with SE wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level inverted trough cuts across the Bahamas. Broad
upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 70W westward. Convective precipitation: Isolated
moderate from 20N northward from 70W westward.

A middle level to upper level inverted trough cuts across the
islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 19N to 22N between 58W and 62W, and
elsewhere from 20N to 30N between 62W and 70W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is about 700 NM to
the west of Morocco. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible in bands of multilayered clouds, to the north of the line
that passes through 32N23W 26N33W to 26N41W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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