[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 19N31W to 07N31W, moving W near 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb
trough/low as depicted in the global models and prevails within a
surge of moderate moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. Despite this, no significant convection is observed
with the wave at this time as Saharan dry air/dust dominates the
area.

A low amplitude tropical wave is entering the SE Caribbean with
axis extending from 15N61W to 06N61W, moving W near 15 kt over
the past 24 hours. This wave was repositioned after analyzing
Visible satellite imagery, latest observations and model guidance.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along the wave and the
ITCZ mainly S of 14N and E of 64W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W and continues to 12N29W. The ITCZ begins W of
a tropical wave near 09N34W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ while isolated
convection is S of the Monsoon Trough from 06N12N and E of 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper low near 21N82W is producing a diffluent environment to
generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms prevailing
east of 90W with higher coverage over the Florida Straits. A
surface 1019 mb high is located near 29N89W off the coast of
Louisiana. A surface ridge extends from the W Atlantic across
central Florida to northeast Texas. The diurnal surface trough
extends from 23N92W to over south Mexico near 18N94W generating
isolated showers and thunderstorms within 75/90 nm W of the
surface trough. The surface ridge will persist through the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is entering the SE portion of the basin. Please
refer to the section above for details. A broad upper-level low
is centered over the NW Caribbean enhancing convection over Cuba
and its adjacent waters mainly N of 20N and W of 75W. To the S,
the proximity of the Monsoon Trough is enhancing scattered
moderate convection S of 13N between 76W-84W. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect over the
next 24-48 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving W with
convection. The tight pressure gradient between the W Atlantic
surface ridge and the lower pressure over South America will
produce fresh to strong winds across the south- central Caribbean
through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

The surface high that prevails across the Atlantic extends S
reaching the island. With this, fair weather dominates the area.
Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible
today and through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern portion of the
basin. Please refer to the section above for details. An upper-
level low centered over the W Atlantic supports scattered moderate
convection across the Florida Straits and the waters W of 78W.
A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin
anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 29N72W and a 1022 mb high
near 34N28W. A weakness on this ridge was analyzed as a cold front
that extends from 31N50W to 29N44W to 31N38W. Isolated convection
is observed along the front. Little change is expected within the
next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net