[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic has an axis that
extends from near 19N25W to 07N27W, moving westward at 10 to 15
kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded in a broad 700
mb trough as indicated in model fields and is accompanied by a
modest surge in moisture. Scattered moderate convection is from
06N-09N between 26W-29W. The convection may also be associated
with the monsoon trough in the area.

A tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic has an axis
that extends from near 14N53W to 05N54W, moving westward at
around 15 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded in
subtle 700 mb troughing and is near the leading edge of a surge
of deep moisture. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-12N
between 50W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 20N16W and continues to 15N24W to 09N30W to 08N36W
where the ITCZ begins and continues to 08N54W to South America
near 06N58W. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-12N
between 20W-24W, from 06N-09N between 30W-38W, and from 05N-10N
between 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across
Florida, through a 1019 mb high centered near 29N89W, and
westward to the northeastern Texas Coast. Gentle winds cover the
north central Gulf. Mainly moderate SE winds cover the remainder
of the Gulf. An upper low is centered over the NW Gulf near
28N95W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the E
Gulf E of 93W to include Florida, and the NE Gulf States. Little
change is forecast over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and lower
pressures over Colombia supports moderate to fresh trade winds
over the south central Caribbean. Mainly moderate trades cover
the remainder of the Caribbean. An upper low is currently just
south of central Cuba near 21N79W. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are over the N Caribbean north of 17N west
of 70W to include Cuba and the NW Caribbean. Similar convection
is over the S Caribbean south of 12N between 60W-84W to include
northern South America. Isolated moderate convection is over
Central America from Costa Rica to Belize. Expect over the next
24 hours for winds to pulse from fresh to strong over the south
central Caribbean tonight. The upper low will move westward with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms continuing over the
northwest Caribbean. A tropical wave will enter the east
Caribbean late Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over Hispaniola.
Expect scattered thunderstorms to continue through Friday with a
gradual decrease in coverage as the upper low moves away from
the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Persistent ridging dominates the majority of our Atlantic area
of discussion from 20N-30N, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered
near 28N74W and a 1024 mb high centered near 29N51W. A frontal
system is north of the area from 31N-34N between 37W-73W. This
frontal system will move east and remain north of the area.
Elsewhere, two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic.
Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details.
Little change is expected over the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA
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