[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 31W,
moving west at 15 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is
embedded in a mainly low moist environment from surface to 850 mb
as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. Meteosat imagery show Saharan
dry air and dust in the wave environment that along with strong
deep layer wind shear in the region limit the convection to
scattered showers from 05N-08N between 29W and 34W.

A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic with axis near 58W,
moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is
embedded in a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb
as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. A diffluent environment aloft
ahead of the wave supports scattered showers across the Windward
Islands and adjacent waters.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 73W, moving
west at 15 knots within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW imagery show the
wave is embedded in shallow moisture whereas water vapor imagery
show strong subsidence aloft. Passing showers are possible for
Hispaniola and adjacent waters tonight.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 12N17W to 08N27W to 05N39W. The
ITCZ begins near 05N39W and continues to 07N56W. Aside from
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers
are within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Relatively tranquil conditions continue across the basin as a
1019 mb high is centered across the NE Gulf near 27N87W, which
provides light variable wind flow E of 90W. Gentle to moderate
return flow dominates elsewhere, except in the eastern Bay of
Campeche where a heat induced surface trough supports fresh NE
flow. Otherwise...primarily gentle to moderate return flow is expected
through Monday with very little change.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between ridging across the Atlc extending
across the northern Caribbean and lower pressure across northern
Venezuela and Colombia continue to support fresh to strong trades
across the majority of the central and SW Caribbean. The exception
is along the Coast of Colombia where near gale force winds are
advertised. Generally moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere.
Shallow moisture in the SW basin and diffluent flow aloft support
isolated showers and tstms within 20 nm of the coast of Costa
Rica and northern Panama. A middle-level trough centered over Cuba
and shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean supports isolated
showers and tstms over southern Cuba adjacent waters. A weak
tropical wave is in the central Caribbean and generates passing
showers over Hispaniola and adjacent waters. A second tropical
wave is starting to move across the eastern basin and supports
scattered showers in the Windward Islands and adjacent waters. See
the tropical waves section above for details. Fresh to strong
winds in the central and SW Caribbean will prevail through Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Passing showers are across Hispaniola and adjacent waters
associated with a tropical wave moving over central Caribbean
waters. Showers associated with this wave are expected to continue during
most day Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main features across the basin are two tropical waves
discussed in the waves section above. Otherwise, a broad surface
ridge dominates the remaining Atlantic waters being anchored by a
1026 mb center of high pres near 27N45W. Mostly tranquil
conditions are expected to persist with the broad surface ridging
the next few days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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