[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Tropical Atlantic with axis extending
from 15N24W to 06N29W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24
hours. Meteosat imagery show Saharan dust and dry air prevailing
along most of the wave's area that along with strong deep-layer
wind shear limits the convection to scattered showers S of 08N
between 26W-30W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis
extending from 16N64W to 07N54w, moving W at 20 kt within the
last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in a light to moderate moist
environment from surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW
imagery. This moisture combined with a diffluent environment aloft
supports scattered showers from 09N-13N between 53W-58W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis
from 19N68W to 11N71W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24
hours. Shallow moisture prevails behind this wave enhancing
scattered convection across Puerto Rico and the Eastern portion
of the basin mainly E of 68W.

A tropical wave is over Central America and EPAC with axis
extending from 15N90W to 07N92W, moving W at 10 kt. Shallow
moisture and diffluent flow aloft support scattered showers
affecting portions of Guatemala and the EPAC area between 88W-94W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 20N16W to 08N26W to 08N38W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 06N53W. Aside from convection
associated with the tropical waves...a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms is from 05N-08N between 34W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1019 mb
high centered near 27N84W. With this, tranquil weather prevails
across the majority of the area with a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow as noted in scatterometer data. A diffluent flow
aloft combined with low-level moisture is generating isolated
convection across the SE Gulf waters affecting portion of South
Florida and the Straits mainly S of 28N and E of 83W. Little
change is expected during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. The pressure gradient
between ridging across the Atlantic basin and lower pressure
across northern Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong
trades across the majority of the central Caribbean between 70W-
80W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the remainder of the
basin. A diffluent flow aloft combined with the proximity of the
Monsoon Trough over Central America is inducing scattered moderate
convection over Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and their adjacent waters S
of 14N and W of 80W. Expect within the next 24 hours for the
tropical wave to continue moving W with convection while the next
one will enter the E Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Benign weather prevails across the island at this time. Weather
conditions will start to deteriorate as a tropical wave moves over
the island today. Showers associated to this wave will persist
through the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main features across the basin are two tropical waves, which
are discussed in the waves section above. Elsewhere, a broad
surface ridge dominates the Atlantic waters anchored by a 1028 mb
high centered near 34N27W. Little change is expected within the
next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net