[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the tropical east Atlantic with axis near
23W, moving west at 10 knots. The wave is embedded in a mainly low moist
environment from surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW
imagery. Meteosat imagery show Saharan dry air and dust in the
wave environment that along with strong deep layer wind shear in
the region hinder the development of convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 49W,
moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is
embedded in a low to moderate moist environment from surface to
850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. A diffluent environment
aloft support isolated showers from 06N-12N between 45W and 52W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 66W,
moving west at 10 knots within the last 24 hours. A mainly low moist
environment from the surface to 850 mb is associated with the
wave. Water vapor imagery show strong subsidence in the vicinity
of this wave as well. Passing showers are possible for NE
Caribbean waters, including Puerto Rico and adjacent waters.

A tropical wave is in Central America with axis near 87W, moving
west at 10 knots. Shallow moisture and diffluent flow aloft
support scattered showers in the western Gulf of Honduras.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N22W to 08N36W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N35W to
02N50W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical
waves...scattered showers are from 05N-08N between 20W and 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Relatively tranquil conditions continue across the basin as a
1020 mb high is centered across the NE Gulf near 26N84W, which
provides light variable wind flow mainly E of 89W. Gentle to
moderate return flow dominates elsewhere, except in the eastern
Bay of Campeche where a heat induced surface trough may support
fresh NE flow. Otherwise...primarily gentle to moderate S-SE
winds are expected through the upcoming weekend with very little
change.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between ridging across the SW North Atlc
and lower pressure across northern Colombia continue to support fresh
to strong trades across the majority of the central and SW
Caribbean. The exception is along the Coast of Colombia where
near gale force winds are advertised. Generally moderate to fresh
trades prevail elsewhere. Moderate moisture in the SW basin and a
diffluent wind pattern at the upper levels supports a cluster of
heavy showers and tstms over Nicaragua that extends 90 nm off the
coast. A short-wave upper level trough over central Cuba with base
reaching S to Jamaica supports scattered showers and tstms over
southern Cuba adjacent waters. Scattered showers are also observed
across NW Hispaniola and coastal waters in that region. Otherwise,
passing showers are expected through the NE Caribbean associated
with a weak tropical wave. See waves section above for details.
The tropical wave will move to the central basin Sat possibly
generating showers for Hispaniola. A second tropical wave will
enter the E Caribbean Sunday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are across NW Hispaniola and coastal waters in
that region. Conditions are expected to improve during Saturday as
a dry air mass moves across the Island. However, during the night
hours conditions start to deteriorate as a tropical wave moves
into central Caribbean waters. Showers associated to this wave are
expected during most day Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main features across the basin are two tropical waves
discussed in the waves section above. Otherwise, a broad surface
ridge dominates the remaining Atlantic waters being anchored by a
1028 mb center of high pres SW of the Azores near 33N29W. Mostly
tranquil conditions are expected to persist with the broad surface
ridging the next few days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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