[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the tropical central Atlantic with axis
near 40W, moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. The
wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from surface to
850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. The wave is being
engulfed by Saharan dry air and dust that along with strong deep
layer wind shear in the region limit the convection to isolated
showers from 06N-13N between 39W and 44W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 63W,
moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. A low to
moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb is
associated with the wave. Water vapor imagery show strong
subsidence in the vicinity of this wave. Convection is limited to
isolated showers E of the wave axis, especially across the
Windward Islands.

A tropical wave is across the southern Yucatan Peninsula and
Guatemala with axis near 91W, moving west at 20 knots within the
last 24 hours. A moderate moist environment from the surface to
850 mb is associated with the wave. Isolated showers are off the
coast of Belize and in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, scattered showers
and tstms are inland mainly across southern Mexico and Guatemala.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W to 07N22W to 05N38W. The ITCZ extends from
06N41W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave, scattered showers are within 60 nm either side of
the monsoon trough and from 05N-13N between 45W and 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridging across the central Atlantic continues to
extend westward over the Florida Peninsula and the entire Gulf of
Mexico basin. Light to moderate return flow dominates basin-wide. A
tropical wave currently along 91W moving W across southern Mexico
and northern Central America will likely provide increased
probability of scattered showers and tstms across southern Mexico
and the Bay of Campeche today. Otherwise, no major changes are
expected during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between ridging across the SW North Atlc
and lower pressure across northern Colombia supports fresh to
locally strong trades across the majority of the central and SW
Caribbean. Generally moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere.
In regards of convection, an upper-level elongated low centered
near the Bahamas and associated trough extending S across the NW
Caribbean support isolated showers along Cuba and adjacent
southern waters. Low surface pressure, abundant moisture and a
diffluent environment aloft supports scattered heavy showers and
tstms along Costa Rica and Panama adjacent waters within 120 nm
of the coasts. Similar convection is off the southern coast of
Nicaragua. Otherwise, a tropical wave in the eastern basin
enhances showers over the Windward Islands. Next tropical wave
will enter the basin Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mainly dry air and strong deep layer wind shear are across the
Island suppressing the development of convection tonight. Stable
conditions are expected to prevail the next two days. However,
shallow moisture moving across the region along with day-time
heating may support the development of showers during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main feature across the basin is a tropical wave discussed in
the waves section above. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge
dominates the remaining Atlantic waters being anchored by a 1028
mb center of high pres SW of the Azores near 33N27W. A tight pres
gradient between this ridge and lower pres inland Africa support
fresh to strong N flow within 270 nm off the Mauritania and
Western Sahara coasts. Mostly tranquil conditions are expected to
persist with the broad surface ridging the next few days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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