[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave which was added to the 0600 UTC surface analysis
is now along 26W/27W from 14N southward, based on long-duration
satellite imagery loops, and SUNY Albany easterly wave
diagnostics. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was
noted from 08N to 10N between 27W and 30W.

Tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 17N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave was re-located earlier based
on SUNY Albany diagnostic data and 700 MB wind data. Scattered
moderate convection was noted in the southern portion of the
wave from 06N to 08N between 42W and 47W.

Tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea is along 70W/71W, from 22N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving
through an area of upper level subsidence with very little deep
convection noted. A  cluster of scattered moderate convection
was noted within 90 nm of the coast of hispaniola between 70W
and 72W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 14N16W, to 12N19W. The ITCZ begins at 12N19W and
continues through 8N26W, to 11N41W, to 07N58W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 12N
between 43W and 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level shear axis extends from a weak circulation over
Georgia southwest through the Gulf from Appalachicola, FL
through 27N91W to near Tampico Mexico. The axis separates
northeasterly flow aloft over the northwestern third of the Gulf
from southwesterly flow which extends over Florida. At the
surface, a ridge extends from the Florida Big Bend to the Texas-
Mexico border. Light southeast winds were noted over the eastern
half of the Gulf, increasing to moderate to fresh within an area
north of 25N and west of 90W.  Fair skies were prevalent over
the Gulf with thunderstorms erupting along the middle Gulf coast
from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving
beneath an upper level trough that extends from a cyclonic
circulation centered over the southwest North Atlantic near
23N68W. The trough axis continues across Haiti and becomes a
shear axis to near 14N78W. Patches of scattered to locally
broken trade wind cumulus dotted the basin with more
concentrated areas of thunderstorms developing in orographically
favored areas in central America and along the north coast of
Colombia and Venezuela. The monsoon trough is along 08N72W in
Colombia, beyond 08N86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Moderate
to fresh trade winds prevailed over the entire area averaging 15
to 20 knots.

...HISPANIOLA...

Hispaniola was situated in an upper level col between a larger
cyclonic circulation near 23N68W and a smaller feature near
15N75W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor satellite imagery west of the island from 13N
northward between 75W and 85W. A cluster of scattered moderate
convection centered within 90 nm of the north coast of the
islands was sending out outflow boundaries which may interact
with locally generated seabreezes to fuel scattered thunderstorms
later this afternoon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp upper level trough passes through 32N12W, to 27N15W just
to the south of the Canary Islands. A shear axis extends from
27N15W to 25N34W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers
the area that from 20N northward between Africa and 80W. A
surface ridge extends from a 1028 MB high pressure center near
31N32W, to 26N65W, across the northwestern Bahamas, and beyond
south Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
Cobb
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