[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
723 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis from 16N32W to
07N33W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave coincides with a
700 mb inverted trough as depicted in model guidance between
30W-40W. Abundant Saharan dust and dry air prevails in the
environment of this wave inhibiting convection at this time.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis from 18N58W to
07N58W, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. This wave coincides with an
inverted 700 mb trough as noted in model guidance and it is
embedded within a surge of moisture depicted in TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate convection prevails across the northern portion
of the wave N of 14N between 55W-61W.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean with axis
from 20N88W to 11N88W, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. A broad
inverted trough at 700 mb is noted in model guidance entering the
eastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula with scattered moderate
convection along the wave's axis between 87W-90W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical
Atlantic near 13N17W to 08N30W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical
wave near 08N34W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
along the coast of west Africa and its adjacent waters mainly E of
22W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is observed
within 100 nm N of the ITCZ W of 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored over the central Atlantic extends across
the basin along 26N. An upper-level low centered over the SE
portion of the basin is supporting scattered light to moderate
convection across the far E Gulf waters and NW Caribbean mainly E
of 84W. A tropical wave moving across the Yucatan Peninsula is
enhancing convection over the Yucatan Channel. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Expect over
the next 24-48 hours for a tropical wave to move to the Bay of
Campeche with convection. Also expect the convection over the SE
Gulf to persist over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the Central America while another
one is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the
section above for more details. The proximity of the monsoon
trough combined with a diffluent flow aloft is supporting
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms S of 13N between
78W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades
across the basin. Expect for the tropical wave to enter the E
Caribbean during the next 24 hours with convection. Little change
is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevail across the island at this time. Daytime
heating coupled with southerly flow aloft will give the island
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms during the next 24-48
hours before a tropical wave moves across the island by the
middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Tropical Atlantic.
Please refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low
centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico is enhancing convection across
the W Atlantic mainly W of 77W. The remainder of the basin is dominated
by a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 30N43W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net