[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041112
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
712 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING...

Gale-force northeast-to-east winds and sea heights ranging from 10
feet to 14 feet, along the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N
between 73W and 77W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 07N to 15N between
26W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. A 1015 MB low pressure
center is along the tropical wave near 14N. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N southward between 50W
and 54W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W from 20N southward
moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The monsoon trough is along 10N in
Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 11N to 13N
between 82W and 84W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 12N
from 74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 13N17W to 10N26W. The ITCZ starts from 09N30W to 07N40W, and
to 08N50W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
from 07N to 10N between 13W and 16W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 05N to 07N between 10W and 16W. isolated
moderate elsewhere from 13N southward between Africa and 50W, and
from 20N southward between 50W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in Mexico near
24N100W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of
Mexico, Texas, and Mexico from 20N to 30N between 96W and 106W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 17N93W, moving
through the eastern sections of the southwestern corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 14N to 22N between 87W and 96W, covering parts of Central
America and the Gulf of Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KXIH, KGHB, and KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Alice and the Corpus Christi NAS, in Rockport, and
in Victoria. Light rain in Palacios. LOUISIANA: MVFR at the NAS
Joint Reserve Base in New Orleans. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in Biloxi.
ALABAMA: VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA: IFR at the Tampa Executive
Airport.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 70W WESTWARD INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N84W.
Cyclonic wind flow, that is moving around the center, covers the
Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Caribbean Sea from 16N
to 30N between 73W and 90W. Convective precipitation: Scattered to
numerous strong in the Windward Passage off the coast of
southeastern Cuba, and from 18N to 19N between 82W and 84W.
Isolated moderate along the coast of Honduras along 85W.

Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 70W eastward.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
04/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.04 in
Guadeloupe.

Upper level southeasterly wind flow is moving across the island.
Hispaniola now is to the southeast of the 24N84W upper level
cyclonic circulation center. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is evident in water vapor imagery, across the Dominican Republic.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 04/0000
UTC...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona as of 04/0000 UTC:
few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana:
VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/NO CEILINGS.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the first half of day
one will consist of east-to-southeast wind flow. The second half
of day one will consist of northeasterly wind flow. Day two will
consist of northeasterly wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 MB shows that east-to-southeast wind flow will be moving
across Hispaniola for the next 48 hours. Hispaniola will be on the
southern side of an Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 MB shows that east-to-southeast wind flow will cover the
area for the next 48 hours.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N23W to 26N26W to 22N33W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
from 40W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is
near 13N32W. A trough extends from 13N32W to 20N24W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge passes
through a 1030 MB high pressure center that is near 32N40W, to
29N50W, 28N69W, across the northwestern Bahamas and south Florida,
into the central Gulf of Mexico, and the lower Texas coast of the
Gulf of Mexico.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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