[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 311439
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

The depression looks a little better organized this morning, with a
large band on the eastern side of the circulation.  However,
satellite classifications still support keeping the system as a
30-kt tropical depression for now.  The cyclone has about 36 hours
to intensify over warm water with moderate shear before the
environment becomes less conducive.  The latest NHC intensity
forecast blends the previous one with the new consensus guidance,
which results in a slightly higher forecast.  The global models
suggest the system will become extratropical in about 48 hours, and
be absorbed within a larger frontal zone in 3 or 4 days.

The latest satellite fixes indicate that the depression has finally
started to move faster toward the northeast.  The cyclone should
continue to accelerate to the northeast within the southwesterly
flow ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough.  This pattern
favors a continuation of the northeast track away from the U.S coast
with a significant increase in forward speed.  The guidance is well
clustered, and the new NHC track prediction is basically an update
of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 35.5N  73.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 36.6N  71.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 38.8N  66.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 41.0N  60.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 43.0N  53.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  03/1200Z 46.0N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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