[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 310851
TCDAT2

HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 AM AST WED AUG 31 2016

Gaston's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding. It
consists of a large and clear eye surrounded by rings of very deep
convection. Dvorak intensity estimates have remained steady and
still support and initial intensity of 105 kt.

Gaston is over warm waters and the shear is expected to increase
just a little during the next day or two. Consequently, only a
slight weakening is anticipated during the the day or so. After
that time, Gaston should encounter cooler waters resulting in a
faster weakening. By the end of the forecast period, Gaston should
become absorbed by another extratropical cyclone.  The NHC intensity
forecast is very similar to the previous one.

The initial motion is 050/8 kt.  Gaston is already embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies, and this pattern should steer the hurricane
toward the northeast and east-northeast with a gradual increase in
forward speed. By day 3, the cyclone should reduce its forward
speed once it begins to interact with a separate extratropical
cyclone. No significant adjustments were made to the previous NHC
track forecast and it continues to be close to the multi-model
consensus TVCN. Gaston continues to move in the direction of the
Azores, and all interests in these islands should monitor the
progress of this cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 33.4N  50.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 34.5N  48.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 36.3N  44.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 37.5N  40.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 38.5N  35.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 39.5N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 41.5N  22.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net