[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 301442
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

The center of the depression has been difficult to pinpoint even
with radar and aircraft data concurrently this morning, probably
due to the nearby thunderstorm activity.  Overall, the depression
remains disorganized, with no significant wind or pressure changes
noted since the last advisory.  The initial wind speed remains 30
kt. The environment seems conducive for some strengthening over the
next couple of days while the depression moves near the Gulf Stream
in light-to-moderate shear.  Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast
shows gradual intensification, and is near, or slightly below the
intensity consensus.  Global models indicate the system will become
an extratropical low in 2 or 3 days before the cyclone dissipates
within the frontal zone.

The initial motion is a very uncertain 335/4.  The depression
should start a slow northward motion toward a break in the
subtropical ridge later today.  After that, it should recurve
northeastward into the westerlies in advance of an approaching
mid- to upper-level trough and an associated surface cold front.
The new forecast track is moved a little to the west of the
previous track during the first 24 hours based primarily on the
initial position, on the western side of the guidance envelope.
After that time, it is similar to the previous track and is blended
back toward the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 34.2N  75.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 34.8N  75.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 35.7N  74.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 37.2N  71.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 39.4N  67.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 45.0N  53.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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