[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 230231
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016

The convective organization of the tropical cyclone has continued
to increase this evening.  A couple of well-defined curved bands of
convection now wrap more than halfway around the center and some
cold cloud tops have recently developed near the center.  As a
result, subjective Dvorak T-numbers have increased to T2.5 and
support upgrading the system to a 35-kt tropical storm.  Gaston
becomes the seventh tropical storm of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane
season.

Gaston is forecast to move over warm water and remain in a low wind
shear environment during the next couple of days.  These favorable
conditions should allow for steady strengthening, and Gaston is
forecast to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, which agrees with
the majority of the intensity guidance.  In about 3 days, the
global models suggest that Gaston will be nearing an upper-level
low over the central Atlantic that could cause an increase in
southwesterly shear over the system.  This should halt
intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for little change in
strength after 72 hours.

The tropical storm is being steered west-northwestward to the south
of deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic.  A west-northwestward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next day or so.  After that time, a weakness in the subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic should cause Gaston to turn
northwestward.  The track guidance remains in very good agreement,
and the NHC forecast is close to the various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 12.6N  30.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 13.0N  33.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 14.0N  36.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 15.3N  38.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 17.1N  41.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 21.0N  46.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 25.0N  50.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 28.0N  53.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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