[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Fiona has weakened to a tropical depression. Its center is near
23.8N 56.6W at 22/0300 UTC or about 495 nm northeast of the
Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 16 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A cluster of heavy showers and tstms is
noted from 22N-25N between 54W-58W. Please see latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic extending from 07N-18N
with axis near 23W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is associated with a 1008 mb low that is centered near
11N22W. Abundant moisture in the wave environment, favorable deep
layer wind shear and upper level diffluence favors scattered heavy
showers and isolated tstms from 05N-14N between 22W and 29W. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next day or two while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean. The Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a
high chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 48
hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 09N-20N
with axis near 46W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24
hours. There is a 1008 mb low near 14N46W associated with the
wave. The proximity of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave
environment continue to limit convection to scattered showers and
isolated tstms from 13N-18N between 44W and 50W. The dry air near
this system is expected to inhibit significant development during
the next few days while the disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development late this week when the system is
expected to move near Hispaniola and the southeastern and central
Bahamas.

Tropical wave is in the western Caribbean extending from 10N-21N
with axis near 77W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.
CIRA LPW imagery from the surface to 850 mb show large patches of
dry air in the wave environment mainly east of the wave axis.
Water vapor imagery continue to show strong dry air subsidence
across this region of the Caribbean. This results in a tropical
wave devoid of convection at the time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 19N16W to 11N22W to 10N35W. The ITCZ begins near
08N48W and continues to 07N53W. Aside from the convection related
to the tropical waves scattered showers are from 05N-11N between
30W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Except for the SW Gulf of Mexico, weak surface ridging prevails
across the basin, being anchored by a 1019 mb high near 27N85W.
The ridge continue to provide gentle variable flow across the east
Gulf and E-SE gentle to moderate flow elsewhere. In the SW basin,
a surface trough extends from 23N93W to 18N94W supporting
cloudiness and possible isolated showers across the Bay of
Campeche. This trough provides NE fresh to strong wind within 120
nm off the Yucatan Peninsula coast. Dry air subsidence support
fair weather elsewhere. Winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche
are forecast to diminish after Monday sunrise but will return
again Monday night as another heat surface trough move off the
Peninsula. Mostly gentle to moderate E-SE winds are expected to
prevail elsewhere through Tuesday near sunrise.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean, however no
showers are linked to it. For more details about it see the
tropical waves section. In terms of winds, the passage of this
wave across the central basin tightened the pressure gradient to
support fresh to strong trade winds S of 16N between 68W and 81W.
Divergent flow over Central America support scattered heavy
showers and tstms across eastern Nicaragua and within 60 nm of its
coast. Similar convection is across western Honduras and southern
Belize and within 20 nm off its coasts. Water vapor imagery
continue to show very dry and stable air across the remainder
Caribbean, thus supporting fair weather. The area of fresh to
strong trades is forecast to prevail through Tuesday sunrise.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Moisture is
forecast to increase across the island within the next 24 hours as
a surge of moisture reaches Hispaniola. This moisture combined
with the local effects will support scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Fiona has weakened to a tropical depression. Please see the
Special Features section above for more details. The other
features of interest in the basin are two tropical waves with
possibilities of becoming tropical cyclones. For more details
refer to both Special Features and Tropical Waves sections. The
remainder of the area is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by
a 1024 mb high centered near 28N38W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net