[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 202033
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016
500 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2016

Fiona's center has again become partially exposed this afternoon in
response to strong southwesterly shear of about 30 kt. A blend of
the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and ADT values from
CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, support holding the initial
intensity at 35 kt for this advisory.  Continued hostile upper-level
winds along with dry air along the path of the storm should induce a
weakening trend, and Fiona is still expected to weaken to a tropical
depression tonight or Sunday. The ECMWF model opens this system
into a trough during the next few days, while some of the other
models hold onto a closed low through the period. If Fiona survives
the strong shear during the next 48 hours, there is a possibility
that the system could continue as a weak tropical cyclone for the
next several days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one, and leans toward the ECMWF model solution.

Fiona has jogged a bit to the right, and it is now moving
northwestward at about 13 kt. The forecast reasoning remains
unchanged from the earlier forecasts, as the low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic should keep Fiona moving
west-northwestward for the next several days.  The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one and is in best agreement
with the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 21.2N  49.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 22.1N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 23.1N  53.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 24.1N  56.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 25.0N  58.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1800Z 27.0N  62.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1800Z 29.5N  65.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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