[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
629 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 17/0900 UTC, T.D. Six center is located near 13.2N/35.2W.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt gusting to 40kt. T.D. Six is
moving northwest at about 13 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 11N-16N between 34W-38W. Please see the latest NHC
intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
from 17N36W to 10N38W, moving west at around 10-15 kt. This wave
was related to the now T.D. Six. The convection observed in the
vicinity of the wave is related to the T.D., which extends from
11N-16N and east of 37W.

A tropical wave extends across the central Atlantic with axis
from 25N59W to 16N61N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides
with a westward surge of abundant moisture as depicted by SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery from 19N-29N between 57W-63W.
Isolated showers are observed from 20N-26N between 59W-62W.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean with axis
extending from 20N85W to 11N84W, moving west at about 20 kt. The
wave coincides with a maximum in potential vorticity over the SW
Caribbean mainly south of 20N between 77W-85W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails where the wave meets the Monsoon Trough
affecting Nicaragua, Costa Rica and their adjacent waters mainly
south of 22N and west of 81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to
14N28W then resumes west of the T.D. Six near 09N38W to 07N50W.
The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N50W to 06N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-15N between 19W-26W and
from 06N-10N between 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low extends over the Bay of Campeche enhancing
scattered moderate convection mainly south of 20N between 92W-95W.
To the east; the southeast Gulf is under the influence of east-
northeasterly flow aloft on the western periphery of an upper-
level low centered over the Bahamas near 24N76W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed across eastern Gulf waters east
of 87W. A surface ridge extends from the central Atlantic across
the northern portion of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts a
gentle to moderate easterly flow across the whole the area.
Expect little change during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. To the south, the presence
of the Monsoon Trough is enhancing convection south of 12N and
west of 81W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds
across the basin except south of 14N between 70W-75W where fresh
to strong trades prevail. Expect during the next 24 hours for the
tropical wave over the western Caribbean to continue moving west
across Central America enhancing convection. Another tropical wave
will enter the northeastern portion of the basin with convection
affecting the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

...HISPANIOLA...

Southwesterly flow aloft is noted over the island supported by the
interaction of an upper-level low centered over the Bahamas near
24N76W and an upper-level ridge centered over the central
Atlantic near 22N60W. Fair weather will continue through the next
24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

T.D. Six and two tropical waves are moving across the basin.
Please refer to the sections above for details. Isolated moderate
convection is observed across the western Atlantic generally west
of 74W supported by an upper-level low centered over the Bahamas
near 24N76W. The remainder of the area is under the influence of
a surface ridge anchored by a pair of highs centered near 32N61W
and 32N26W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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