[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161141
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane CenterMiami FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is over the Eastern Atlantic at about 390 nm
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis that extends from
14N30W to 06N30W. A 1008 mb low was left behind by the wave centered
near 09N28W. Clusters of moderate convection are noted from 07N-
13N between 27W-36W. These features are in a moist environment
and the wave has a noticeable 700 mb signature. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the
next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the
central tropical Atlantic. Latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives
this system a high chance of tropical development through the
next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis
from 20N57W to 08N57N moving west at around 20 kt during the past
24 hours. The wave is in a moist environment as depicted by the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. However, dry air with
Saharan dust is wrapping around the west side of the wave
inhibiting significant convection at this time. The wave has a
classic V-structure noticed on satellite imagery.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis that
extends from 17N75W to 11N75W, moving west at about 20 kt during
the past 24 hours. A low amplitude bulge of moisture extends from
the southern portion of the wave to about 16N as noted on the TPW
imagery. This moisture is forecast to remain south of 20N as the
wave continues west through the central Caribbean through the day.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 20N17W to
the Special Feature low near 10N28W to 08N40W. The ITCZ begins
near 08N40W and continues to 07N58W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection
is from 06N-09N and west of 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated upper-level low extends across the central Gulf
with axis along 90W. This feature is enhancing isolated moderate
convection across the whole basin. To the south; scattered moderate
convection prevails across the northern portion of Central America
and southern Mexico and is moving west reaching the Bay of Campeche
mainly south of 20N. A thermal surface trough is near this convection
extending from 20N91W to 17N94W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle
to moderate southeasterly flow across the basin. Expect during the
next 24 hours for the upper-level low to dissipate. Convection
will persist across the southwest Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please refer to
the Tropical Waves section above for details. Elsewhere, isolated
moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean, south of Cuba from
18N-21N between 80W-85W supported by a diffluent flow aloft.
Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean north of
Costa Rica and Panama due to the proximity of the Monsoon Trough.
Scatterometer data and buoys observations indicate fresh to strong
tradewinds over the central Caribbean with the strongest winds
along the coast of Colombia. These winds are forecast to persist
through mid-week, increasing to near gale force along the NW coast
of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours through
Wednesday night. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Model
guidance suggests that abundant moisture will prevail across the
area through the next 24 hours which could induce showers and
thunderstorms when combined with daytime heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft supports
isolated moderate convection west of 72W. Surface ridge dominates
the reminder of the area anchored by a pair of 1025 mb high
centered along 33N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressure over western Africa is producing near gale force
winds from the northeast across the Canary Islands as noted in
recent scatterometer data. The surface ridge will persist through
the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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