[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is in the E Atlantic from 07N-17N with axis near
21W, moving W at 5 kt within the last 12 hours. The wave is in a
very moist and favorable deep layer wind shear environment that
along with diffluent flow in the upper levels support a cluster of
heavy showers and isolated tstms from 09N-12N between 19W and 23W
and scattered heavy showers elsewhere from 07N-13N E of 28W.

Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 07N-20N with axis
near 39W, moving W at 25-30 kt within the last 24 hours. Both CIRA
LPW and TPW imagery show dry air intrusion in the wave
environment. Even though the wave it is in a region of favorable
deep layer wind shear, the presence of Saharan dry air or dust
hinder convection at the time.

Tropical wave entering the E Caribbean extends from 08N-17N with
axis near 61W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The
presence of Saharan dry air and dust and unfavorable deep layer
wind shear in the NE Caribbean is limiting the convection
associated with this wave to scattered showers S of 15N between
58W and 67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 11N16W
to 07N24W to 07N36W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 07N37W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. For
information about convection see the tropical waves section.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low centered over the NE basin and a middle to
upper level inverted trough moving across the Yucatan Peninsula
generate diffluent flow aloft over the SE Gulf waters. This
unstable wind pattern aloft along with moisture inflow from the
Caribbean by SE flow support scattered showers and isolated tstms
S of 27N E of 90W. Remnant energy and moisture associated with the
passage of a tropical wave currently over the E Pacific waters
support scattered heavy showers over the E Bay of Campeche while a
surface trough with axis along 95W S of 23N support isolated
showers in the W Bay of Campeche. Upper level ridging and
unfavorable deep layer wind shear only allow for isolated showers
elsewhere. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a ridge with axis extending from the Florida
peninsula west- southwest to near 25N90W. Generally moderate to
fresh anticyclonic winds prevail and are forecast to continue
through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Various regions of upper level diffluence are supporting scattered
heavy showers and isolated tstms across Honduras and Nicaragua,
Cuba and Hispaniola as well as adjacent waters. In the SW basin,
the monsoon trough support similar convection within 60 nm off the
coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. A tropical wave is moving across
the Lesser Antilles supporting scattered showers in the SE basin.
For more information see the tropical waves section.
Otherwise...fresh to strong winds are in the south-central
Caribbean expanding E and W through Monday. Moderate to fresh
trades are elsewhere. The tropical wave will move to the central
Caribbean by Tuesday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level diffluence continue to support scattered heavy showers
and tstms across the Island that is forecast to continue through
Monday sunrise. Showers are possible to resume early Tuesday
morning as a tropical wave approaches from the east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level low centered in the NE Gulf of Mexico supports a
cluster of heavy showers and tstms over N Florida that extends
offshore to 79W N of 28N. The remainder of the central and
eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1027 mb high centered SW of the Azores near 35N27W
providing ample subsidence and relatively dry and stable
conditions across those portions of the Atlantic basin.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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