[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is in the E Atlantic from 10N-20N with axis near
31W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW imagery from
the surface to 850 mb depict patches of dry air in the wave
environment. Meteosat enhanced imagery show this is due to the
presence of Saharan dry air and dust. The wave is also embedded in
a neutral to unfavorable deep layer wind shear environment that
hinder convection at the time.

Tropical wave reaching the Caribbean extends from 05N-15N with
axis near 55W, moving W at 20-25 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA
LPW imagery from the surface to 850 mb depict patches of dry air
in the wave environment. However, no Saharan dry air or dust is
observed affecting the wave at the time. Favorable deep layer
wind shear and a region of upper level diffluence support
scattered showers from 07N-14N between 51W and 59W.

Tropical wave extends from 11N-21N with axis near 90W, moving W at
10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of
favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear that supports scattered
heavy showers and tstms over northern Central America and the
Yucatan Peninsula.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 14N17W
to 08N30W to 08N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 08N41W to 09N51W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves. Scattered heavy showers are from
06N-15N E of 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

North-northeasterly flow aloft continues across much of the Gulf
this evening between an upper level anticyclone centered over E
Texas, and an upper level low centered over south Florida. Mid to
upper level energy continues to ride around the eastern flank of
the anticyclone, and in combination with moist SE low-level flow
is resulting in scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms over
the northwest waters of the Gulf north of 25N W of 85W. Similar
convection is within 60 nm off the Yucatan Peninsula associated
with a tropical wave with axis near 90W. See tropical waves
section for details. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a ridge with axis extending from the
Florida peninsula west-southwest to near 22N87W. Generally
moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevail with slightly
stronger south to southwest winds expected across the far NW
waters through Sunday. The ridge axis will slowly lift northward
through the weekend with moderate to fresh E-SE winds forecast
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin remains
confined to the NW Caribbean waters associated primarily with a
middle-level low centered near 19N84W and a divergent environment
in the upper levels. This active weather is in the form of
scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms N of 15N W of 74W. Farther
east...a well-defined surface trough with axis from 13N71W to
19N70W. This area of low pressure is supporting scattered heavy
showers and tstms from 15N-20N between 65W and 72W, including
western Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. The trough is
forecast to reach near 70W/71W by Sunday morning, then dissipate
late Sunday or early Monday. Otherwise...trades will range from
moderate to fresh breeze levels and gradually increase fresh to
strong across the central waters through Monday generally between
67W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level low is centered S of Haiti while a small
anticyclone is centered NE of Dominican Republic generating
diffluence aloft to support scattered heavy showers and tstms
from 15N-20N between 65W and 72W, including the Dominican
Republic and adjacent waters. A surface trough with axis near 71W
supports this convection as well. Moisture guidance suggests that
this activity will continue to hold as it passes to the south of
the island, and along the southern portion of the island through
Sunday evening. Gusty winds can be expected with this activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper level low centered in south Florida is pulling ample
deep moisture northward from the western Caribbean Sea north to
over much of the Bahama islands, and also waters between the
Bahamas and south Florida. This is leading to scattered showers
and thunderstorms to occur from central Cuba north to 29N W of 76W.
Farther east...a weakness within the subtropical ridging is
analyzed as three surface troughs with no convection. The
remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered
across the Azores near 39N27W providing ample subsidence and
relatively dry and stable conditions across those portions of the
Atlantic basin.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net