[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is over the Eastern Atlantic from 19N25W to 07N26N
moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a very moist environment as
depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave
axis is best defined at 700 mb. An area of scattered moderate
convection is from 07N-10N between 25W-28W.

Tropical wave is in the Central Atlantic from 14N48W to 06N48W
moving W at 20 kt. The wave is a low amplitude wave. The wave is
in a moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water Imagery. The wave is well defined at 700 mb.
Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 46W-51W.

Tropical wave is over the Western Caribbean from 22N85W to
12N85W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a moderate moist
environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
Imagery. The wave axis is best defined at 700 mb. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis to include
over NW Caribbean,W Cuba, Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras,
and Nicaragua.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 17N16W to
11N22W to 09N30W to 09N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N42W to the
coast of South America near 07N58W. Besides the convection
associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection
is from 08N-10N between 29W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 mb low is centered over S Mississippi near 32N90W.
Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are over
most of the North Central Gulf of Mexico from 26N-33N between
87W-94W. Areas of localized flooding are likely over southern
Mississippi, Louisiana, and eastern Texas. Scattered moderate
convection is also over the SE Gulf, Florida, W Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula. In the upper levels, mostly NE flow is over
the Gulf with upper level moisture. Expect over the next 24
hours for the surface low remain quasi-stationary with continued
convection over a large portion of the North Central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the Western Caribbean. See above. A
surface trough is over the Leeward Islands from 17N61W to
12N64W. Isolated moderate convection is N of 12N and E of 70W.
10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate to strong convection is over NW Venezuela, N Colombia.
Isolated moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 12N,
Panama, and Costa Rica, mostly due to the monsoon trough. In the
upper levels, a large upper level low is centered over the N
Bahamas near 24N77W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the SW
Caribbean to continue to have convection. Also expect the
tropical wave and surface trough to move west with significant
convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection is presently over Hispaniola due
to the upper level low. Expect the upper level low to move W to
the Straits of Florida over the next 24 hours with convection.
Also expect convection associated with the surface trough to be
S of the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is over the
Western Atlantic from 31N60W to 28N64W to 29N70W. Isolated
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. A surface
trough is over the Central Atlantic from 25N53W to 20N57W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough axis. In the
upper levels, the low over the N Bahamas is enhancing convection
W of 70W. Expect in 24 hours for the front to dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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