[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic was relocated to
along 18W/19W from 8N-19N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past
24 hours. Wave relocation is based on a well defined 700 mb
trough as depicted in the global models and is within high
amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery moving off Africa. The north
vorticity associated with this wave has moved further north and
is now embedded within the mid-latitude flow. Isolated moderate
convection is from 8N to the monsoon trough east of 21W to the
coast of Africa.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic was relocated
along 40W-41W from 5N-12N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past
24 hours. Wave relocation is based on a 700 mb trough as
depicted in the global models and is embedded within a low
amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. The north vorticity associated with
this wave has moved further north and is now embedded within the
mid-latitude flow. No associated deep convection is noted.

Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 76W from
12N-21N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is embedded within an area of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep
convection is noted. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 16N-20N between 74W-79W and are being
enhanced by an upper trough.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N17W and continues along 11N27W to east of the
central Atlantic tropical wave near 7N40W. The ITCZ begins west
of the wave near 6N43W and continues along 10N49W to 7N56W.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 45 nm of a
line from 5N33W to 7N37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge anchored over east Texas covers the southeast
CONUS and the Gulf of Mexico with a shortwave upper trough
extending from the Mississippi Delta to northwest Louisiana. A
surface trough extends from a 1013 mb low over central
Mississippi into the Gulf near 30N89W southwest across the
Mississippi Delta to 29N93W. Scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms are north of 26N between 85W-93.5 to over
the Florida panhandle to the Louisiana/Texas border. Scattered
to numerous showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are in
the Straits of Florida east of 82W from Cuba to the Florida
Keys. A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across
south Florida to the central coast of Mexico. The surface trough
over the north Gulf coast will drift west through Saturday. The
surface ridge will shift north extending from south Florida to
Texas in the wake of the surface trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico extends over the far
west Caribbean while a second upper ridge anchored over the west
Tropical Atlantic covers the far east Caribbean. Wedge between
these upper ridges is an upper trough centered over Hispaniola.
The activity associated with the tropical wave is being enhanced
by this upper low/trough. The upper ridge over the east
Caribbean is enhancing the activity associated with a surface
trough approaching the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of a line from 15N69w
to across the Lesser Antilles near 14N61W. The monsoon trough
extends from Colombia near 10N74W along the north coast of
Panama to a 1011 mb low near 9N81W then across Costa Rica into
the east Pacific region. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are south of 12N between 77W-83W to inland over
Panama. The central Caribbean tropical wave will reach the west
Caribbean Friday. The surface trough east of the Lesser Antilles
will move into the Caribbean later today. The next tropical wave
will enter the east Caribbean Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing across the
island this afternoon. The upper low currently over Hispaniola
will drift west through Saturday. Afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms scenario will dominate the island today. The
surface trough moving into the east Caribbean today will bring
an increase in moisture Friday Saturday along the south coast.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper low is centered over Hispaniola covers most of the
west Atlantic and is generating scattered to numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms from Cuba to 29N west of 77W to the
coast of Florida and through the Straits of Florida. An upper
trough north of 29N between 50W-70W is supporting a dissipating
stationary front that extends through 32N55W along 29N62W to
31N68W with a pre-frontal surface trough extending from 29N57W
to 26N62W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
within 75 nm either side of the front. A surface trough is east
of the Lesser Antilles along 49W/50W from 11N-16N generating
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms from
11N-16N east of 57W to across the Lesser Antilles. The north
portion of the west Tropical Atlantic tropical wave is now a
surface trough that extends along 47W/48W from 20N-28N with
isolated showers within 90 nm either side of the surface trough.
The north Vorticity of the east Tropical Atlantic tropical wave
is causing broad troughing over the far east Atlantic with no
shower activity. The Atlantic surface trough along 47W/84W will
drift west through Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net