[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110507
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
107 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 08N23W to 18N22W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 22W-27W.
No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this
time.

Tropical wave extends from 09N46W to 20N45W moving W at 10 kt.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb troughing as depicted in the
global models between 43W-52W and a maximum in 850 mb relative
vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 20N. No
significant convection is occurring with the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 11N71W to 20N70W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 69W-76W.
No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this
time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
09N33W to 06N44W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 06N44W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-
15N between 14W-20W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
12N-16N between 55W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over eastern
Texas near 31N96W and is providing much of the Gulf basin with
northeasterly flow aloft. Embedded beneath this upper level
ridging is a broad mid-level low and associated energy. Satellite
imagery indicates plenty of scattered to broken cloudiness with
isolated showers and tstms occurring mostly north of a surface
ridge axis extending across the Florida peninsula to the SW Gulf.
The strongest convective activity is noted on regional Doppler
radar imagery N of 28N between 85W-92W. Otherwise...the surface
ridge is anchored by a 1020 mb high centered off the coast of the
Florida peninsula near 26N83W providing generally moderate
anticyclonic winds with slightly stronger S-SW winds across the NE
Gulf waters. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist
across the basin through Sunday as the ridge axis gradually lifts
northward through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring in
the adjacent coastal waters of Cuba. An area of strong tstms is
occurring in the vicinity of 20N80W. Otherwise...a surface trough
analyzed east of the Lesser Antilles along 58W is introducing
scattered showers and tstms to the islands and portions of the
eastern Caribbean from 12N-16N between 55W-65W. The other
important feature is a tropical wave along 70W moving across the
central Caribbean providing isolated showers and tstms generally
across the waters N of 16N between 65W-75W...including Hispaniola.
This activity is likely enhanced by favorable dynamics aloft due
to the presence of an upper level low centered near 17N70W. The
remainder of the basin is under relatively dry conditions aloft
with mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevailing this
evening. Trades will range from moderate to strong with the
strongest winds generally remaining S of 14N between 70W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
An upper level low is centered south of the island near 17N70W
that will provide middle to upper level instability for the region
during the day on Thursday. Isolated showers and tstms are
anticipated as the upper level feature moves westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level shortwave is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 28N78W that supports a surface trough
analyzed across the NW Bahamas. Isolated showers and tstms are
occurring in the vicinity of the boundary from 24N-29N between
74W-79W. To the northeast...an upper level trough extends across
the central North Atlc and supports a stationary front analyzed
from 36N50W to 30N60W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring
from 27N-31N between 56W-66W. The remainder of the central and
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge associated
with high pressure well to the N-NE of the discussion area with
axis extending from the Azores SW to 30N50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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