[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090450
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 11N31W to 20N34W moving W at 10 kt.
This wave coincides with a 700 mb troughing as depicted in the
global models between 28W-36W and a narrow maximum in 850 mb
relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis. No
significant deep convection is noted with the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 11N52W to 18N52W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 47W-57W.
No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this
time.

Tropical wave extends from 11N84W to 20N83W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 80W-85W on
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored to the
northeast over the SW North Atlc near 26N66W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 10N-16N between 82W-86W.

Tropical wave extends from 10N93W to 19N92W moving W at 10 kt.
This wave is embedded within an overall moist environment with
700 mb troughing noted between 91W-95W over southern Mexico and
the far southwestern Gulf waters. Scattered to numerous moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-19N between 88W-
95W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 18N16W to
10N26W to 10N39W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 10N39W to 09N60W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
05N-09N between 22W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level ridge is noted on water vapor imagery anchored over
the SE CONUS providing much of the Gulf with diffluent flow aloft
E of 90W. Beneath the ridging...a low to mid-level area of low
pressure remains across the SE CONUS and NE Gulf waters focused on
a 1009 mb low centered near 31N86W. A surface trough extends SW
from the low to 28N90W. Given the low to middle level moisture
convergence...and upper level diffluence...scattered showers and
tstms are occurring N of 25N between 82W-90W. Farther south...the
upper level diffluence is relatively stronger and supporting
scattered showers and tstms occurring S of 25N E of 84W...
including the Florida Straits. Otherwise...a surface ridge axis
extends from the SW North Atlc region across the Florida Straits
to the SW Gulf waters providing generally gentle to moderate S-SE
winds outside of the influence of the low pressure area impacting
the NE Gulf region. Across the NE Gulf...moderate to fresh S-SW
winds are expected through Wednesday. As the low pressure area
across the SE CONUS weakens through Wednesday night...surface
ridging will gradually lift northward with the axis anchoring
along 27N/28N by Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring W
of 80W with a weak tropical wave analyzed along 83W bringing
isolated showers and tstms to inland portions of Costa Rica...
Nicaragua...and Honduras this evening. Otherwise...scattered
showers and isolated tstms continue to diminish across portions of
Cuba and the adjacent coastal waters N of 20N between 76W-86W. The
remainder of the basin is under relatively dry conditions aloft
due to an upper level anticyclone centered over Hispaniola. Mostly
clear skies and fair conditions are expected through Tuesday.
Trades will range from moderate to strong with the strongest winds
generally remaining S of 16N between 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the
island and is providing a mostly stable and dry environment aloft.
Earlier evening convection continues to diminish and mostly fair
conditions are expected for the overnight hours into Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level low is centered north of the Bahamas near 30N78W
with an associated trough axis extending south to over eastern
Cuba. This feature is enhancing scattered showers and tstms
across the far SW North Atlc waters S of 30N W of 77W. To the
east...a surface trough extends from 26N73W to 30N70W with
isolated showers and tstms occurring from 23N-30N between 67W-74W.
Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered
near 28N63W. Another weak surface trough extends across the central
Atlc from 24N55W to beyond 32N51W with no significant weather
occurring in the vicinity of the boundary. The remainder of the
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge associated
with high pressure well to the N-NE of the discussion area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net