[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 19N29W
to 11N26W moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is within high amplitude surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated
deep convection is noted.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along
47W/48W from 10N-16N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as
depicted in the global models and is embedded within a low
amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is
noted.

Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 79W/80W
from 10N-22N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models
and is embedded within a surge moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection
is noted.

Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 87W/88W south
of 21N to inland over Central America moving west near 15 kt
over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within an area of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
No associated deep convection is noted.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W and continues along 11N26W to 10N37W where
the ITCZ begins and continues along 10N50W to South America near
8N59W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are within 60 nm of a line from 9N25W to 10N34W.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 7N-10N
between 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low over northeast
Florida near 30N83W into the Gulf along 28N85W to near 26N87W.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are
north of 26N east of 86W to over Florida and north of 27N
between 86W-89W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 60 nm of the north Gulf coast between 89W-93W with
isolated showers and thunderstorms dotting the remainder of the
area north of 23N east of 90W. A weak surface ridge extends from
the west Atlantic across south Florida to northeast Texas. A low
to mid level trough will persist across the north/central or
northeast Gulf through midweek. The weak surface ridge will
meander from south Florida to northeast Texas through midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low is centered north of the Bahamas and extends an
upper trough to over central Cuba generating scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm along the south coast of
Cuba between 80W-83W. An upper ridge anchored in the
west/central Atlantic covers the east Caribbean east of 76W.
The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W across
Panama near 9N79W into the east Pacific region generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 11N
between 77W-83W to inland over Panama and Costa Rica. The west
Caribbean tropical wave will move out of the Caribbean today.
The central Caribbean tropical wave will reach the northwest
Caribbean and Central America late tonight. The next tropical
wave will enter the east Caribbean Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies are clear across the island this morning. The upper ridge
currently over the west/central Atlantic will drift southwest to
over the island by tonight then continue west of the island
through midweek. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
scenario will dominate the island through midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper low is centered north of the Bahama Islands near
28N79W and extends an upper trough south over central Cuba. This
is generating scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 23N-29N west of 77W to over Florida. The
upper ridge that covers the east Caribbean is anchored near
22N68W. A surface trough extends from 27N68W to 23N70W and is
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within
75 nm of a line from 24N65W to 26N69W and isolated showers
within 60 nm of line from 27N70W to 29N73W. A surface ridge
covers the remainder of the west Atlantic anchored by a 1019 mb
high near 27N63W and extending west across south Florida into
the Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough over the east/central
Atlantic is supporting a cold front north of the area with a
stationary front that extends from 31N41W 28N43W to 26N46W.
Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms dot the
area from 25N-32N between the stationary front to 54W. The
remainder of the east Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge
anchored by a 1032 mb high well northeast of the Azores and a
ridge axis extending through 32N32W to 25N40W. The west Atlantic
surface trough will drift northwest to north through midweek
disrupting the surface ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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