[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic near the Cabo Verde
Islands extends along 25W/26W from 8N-18N moving west-southwest
at 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a
well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and
is within high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection
is noted.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 41W
from 6N-14N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture
as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
moderate convection is from 6N-8N between 41W-42W.

Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 71W from
11N-20N moving west at 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is along the leading edge of a broad surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm
along the north coast of Hispaniola between 68W-70W.

Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 78W/79W from
10N-22N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is
within a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and
is embedded within a moderate surge of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep
convection is noted.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W and continues along 11N26W to east of the
central Tropical Atlantic wave near 9N39W. The ITCZ begins west
of the wave near 9N43W and continues along 8N50W to South
America near 6N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 5N-10N between 43W-46W, from 8N-11N between
46W-50W, and from 7N-9N between 51W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A shortwave upper trough extends from the west Atlantic near
31N80W west to the southeast Louisiana with a weak surface trough
at 07/0300 UTC extending from south Georgia across the Florida
panhandle near 30N84W into the Gulf to near 27N85W. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm
east and 60 nm west of the surface trough south of 30N and
within 60 nm along the north Gulf coast between 85W-89W.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are in
the east Bay of Campeche south of 20N east of 94W to inland over
Mexico and the Yucatan peninsula. A weak surface ridge extends
from the west Atlantic across south Florida to Texas. The
surface trough over the northeast Gulf will linger through
Monday. The surface ridge will persist into next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge extends from the Gulf of Honduras to the
southwest Caribbean near 12N78W while an upper ridge anchored in
the central Atlantic covers the east Caribbean. An upper low is
centered over the Bahamas near 24N75W amd extends an upper
trough across east Cuba to south of Jamaica near 14N79W.
Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms that developed
inland over Cuba are moving south into the Caribbean waters. The
upper ridge over the east Caribbean is providing difflunce aloft
to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north
of 18N to over Hispaniola between the Mona Passage and the
Windward Passage. The tropical wave over the west Caribbean will
pass through the remainder of the Caribbean by Monday. The
tropical wave in the central Caribbean will reach the west
Caribbean on Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot portions of the
island tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through
today as the tropical wave moves across the island. Skies will
clear early on Monday as the tropical wave moves away from the
island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge over the east Caribbean is anchored near 23N63W
and is providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from 19N-24N between 66W-71W including
Hispaniola. An upper trough over the north/central Atlantic is
supporting a cold front that enters the region near 32N40W along
30N47W to 32N54W. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 75 nm of line from 27N46W to beyond
31N41W and within 90 nm of line from 27N48W to 32N54W. The
remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge
anchored by a 1032 mb high northeast of the Azores with a ridge
axis extending through 32N30W along 25N40W to a 1021 mb high
near 25N53W to a 1020 mb high near 27N64W continuing west across
south Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridge will
meander across the north portion of the west Atlantic into next
week. The north portion of the central Caribbean tropical wave
will move through the southern Bahamas Sunday, then through the
central Bahamas on Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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