[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Earl is centered near 19.0N 97.5W at 06/1200
UTC or about 85 nm west of Veracruz, Mexico moving west at 9 kt.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gust to 35 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Please see the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.
Earl made landfall just south of Veracruz, Mexico near 06/0200
UTC. Since then Earl continues to move further inland. The main
threat from Earl and its remnants will continue to be heavy
rainfall that could cause flash floods and mudslides across a
large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico and
will continue even after the cyclone dissipates. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the Gulf
waters south of a line from 24N97W 24N93W to 19N91W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave off the coast of Africa extends along 20W/21W from
10N-21N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours.  Wave
coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is within high amplitude surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 17W-20W.

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 35W
from 5N-13N moving west 10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture
as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 6N-10N between 34W-37W.

Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 64W/65W from
11N-21N moving west near 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is embedded within a broad surge of moisture
as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 18N-20N between
60W-62W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from
15N-22N between 59W-68W and south of 14N to inland over South
America between 61W-67W including Trinidad.

Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 72W/73W
from 12N-22N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
is within a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models
and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are over the Turks and Caicos from 20N-23N between
69W-73W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N17W through the Cabo Verde Islands and
continues along 10N27W to 8N40W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 7N51W to 9N60W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 7N-10N between 37W-41W. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are from 6N-9N between 23W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The primary concern this morning for the south Gulf of Mexico is
the rainfall from Tropical Storm Earl. See special features
above. A shortwave upper trough is moving south from South
Carolina to south Alabama with a weak surface trough extending
from south Georgia across the Florida panhandle near Tallahassee
to 28N89W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of
28N east of 89W to inland over Florida and to the north Gulf
coast. A weak surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic
across south/central Florida to Texas with a 1016 mb high near
27N86W. Tropical Storm Earl is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression later today and dissipated late tonight. The surface
trough over the northeast Gulf will linger through the weekend
into early next week. The surface ridge will persist into early
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over the northwest Caribbean near
20N86W extending to the central Caribbean near 15N77W while an
upper ridge anchored in the central Atlantic covers the east
Caribbean. An upper low is centered over the Bahamas extending
south across Cuba to south of Jamaica. The upper ridge over the
west Caribbean is providing difflunce aloft to generate
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 11N west
of 80W to the coast of Cuba and the Yucatan and inland over the
Central America. The activity over the east Caribbean is
associated with the tropical wave along 64W/65W. The tropical
wave over the central Caribbean will reach the west Caribbean
Sunday and the northwest Caribbean Sunday night. The tropical
wave east Caribbean will reach the central Caribbean on Sunday
night and the west Caribbean on Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies have cleared across the island this morning. However,
showers and thunderstorms are already in the Mona Passage and
will move inland over the Dominican Republic this morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will then continue through today into
Sunday as the next tropical wave moves across the island. Skies
will clear Monday as the both tropical waves move away from the
island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough north of 30N is supporting a stationary front
that dips south to 31N46W with a pre-frontal trough that extends
from 31N41W along 28N45W to 27N50W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 45 nm either side of the
surface trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a
surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high east of the Azores with
a ridge axis extending through 32N30W to a 1019 mb high near
28N38W then west to a 1020 mb high near 27N63W continuing west
across south/central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Surface
ridge will meander across the north portion of the west Atlantic
through Monday. The north portion of the tropical waves will
move through the southwest Atlantic north of the Greater
Antilles through Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net