[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051157
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 18.5N 93.5W at 05/1200 UTC
or about 50 nm east-southeast of Veracruz, Mexico and about 150
nm east-northeast of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico moving west-northwest
at 10 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gust to 45
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Please see
the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.
Earl remains inland over south Mexico. The main threat from Earl
continues to be heavy rains over a large portion of Central
America and southeastern Mexico. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf waters
south of 22N between 90W-96W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave remains inland over Africa.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along
53W/54W from 9N-19N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as
depicted in the global models and is embedded within a broad
surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 15N-19N between 52W-56W.

Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 64W/65W from
11N-21N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is
trailing a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is
embedded within a narrow surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 14N20N between 63W-66W including the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 20N16W and continues along 13N18W 9N26W to 7N36W
where the ITCZ begins and continues to 9N48W. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 120
nm along the coast of Africa between 8N-13N, from 6N-10N between
20W-24W, from 8N-10N between 24W-30W, and within 120 nm south of
the monsoon trough between 28W-34W. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are from 10N-12N between 29W-34W and within
150 nm south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 34W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The primary concern this morning is the rainfall from Tropical
Storm Earl. See special features above. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are north of 27N east of 89W with
isolated showers north of 28N west of 89W. A weak surface ridge
extends from the west Atlantic across south Florida to Texas.
The surface ridge will persist through the weekend. A surface
trough may stall in the northeast Gulf with a weak low pressure
developing along the trough late in the weekend. Tropical Storm
Earl is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche late this
morning/early this afternoon, then move back inland over
mainland Mexico late tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Anticyclonic flow over the west Caribbean is associated with
Tropical Storm Earl while an upper ridge anchored in the
Tropical Atlantic covers the east Caribbean. An upper low is
centered just north of the Turks and Caicos and extending south
over the north-central Caribbean from east Cuba to over
Hispaniola. The upper ridge associated with Earl is providing
difflunce aloft to generate scattered to numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms from 13N-19N between 79W-85W including
portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms dot the remainder of the west Caribbean
south of 20N west of 76W. The upper ridge over the east
Caribbean is enhancing the activity associated with the tropical
wave. Tropical Storm Earl will continue to move away from the
Caribbean basin. The associated winds will continue to diminish
and the seas subside through the morning. The tropical wave over
the east Caribbean will reach the central Caribbean tonight and
the west Caribbean Saturday night. A second tropical wave will
enter the east Caribbean on Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies remain clear across the island this morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will return later this morning as the tropical
wave moves toward the island. This activity will encompass the
entire island by tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1025
mb high east of the Azores with a ridge axis extending through
32N34W 28N43W then west to a 1021 mb high near 27N55W continuing
west across south Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridge
will persist into the weekend. The north portion of the tropical
waves will move through the southwest Atlantic north of the
Greater Antilles through Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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