[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Earl is near 17.6N 90.8W at 04/2100 UTC moving W
at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 999 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Latest
satellite imagery show numerous heavy showers and isolated tstms
over the Yucatan Peninsula extending 100 nm off the coast into the
E Bay of Campeche. Scattered heavy showers are across Guatemala
and positions of S Mexico. Earl is forecast to weaken further to
a tropical depression by late tonight or early Friday morning as
it tracks further inland. Earl is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize,
Guatemala, and the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana
Roo, Tabasco and Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum
amounts of 18 inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala
and the central part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains
could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Please see latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 10N-19N with axis near 49W, moving W
at 25-30 kt within the last 24 hours. Even though the wave remains in
a favorable deep layer wind shear region, Saharan dry air and dust
are in the wave environment, thus hindering the development of
deep convection. CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb continue
to show dry air wrapping the northern and western sides of the
wave axis. Isolated showers are possible from 10N-14N between 45W
and 56W.

Tropical wave extends from 10N-21N with axis near 61W, moving W
at 25-30 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave remains in a
region of favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear. CIRA LPW
imagery from surface to 850 mb and TPW imagery show the wave is
embedded in a very moist environment that along with an upper level
diffluent environment support scattered heavy showers and isolated
tstms from 15N-22N between 58W and 65W. This wave will continue to
move into the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight, then move through the
central Caribbean Friday and the western Caribbean Saturday before
moving west of the sea on Sun. Gusty winds can be expected with
the wave as it quickly tracks across the Caribbean basin.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from near 10N14W to 08N25W to 07N40W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves...scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N between
17W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends from the Atlantic to the Florida
Peninsula. As of 2100 UTC, a 1012 mb surface low developed over
SW Georgia near a region where an upper level anticyclone is
centered. A surface trough extends from the low SW across the NE
Gulf of Mexico from 30N84W to 26N86W. The combination of middle
level divergence, the surface trough and abundant moisture in the
region is resulting in isolated showers and tstms N of 26N E of
89W. In the far southern portion of the Gulf, the leading
rainbands from Tropical Storm Earl provide scattered showers to
the Yucatan Channel and numerous heavy showers to the eastern Bay
of Campeche. This activity is forecast to gradually spread
westward to the far southwest Gulf through Friday night. Strong to
near gale force NE winds are in the eastern Bay of Campeche from
the tight pressure gradient associated with Tropical Storm Earl.
These winds are forecast to decrease late Friday into Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Earl is inland and weakening over northern
Guatemala tonight. See Special Features section above. Water
vapor imagery and TPW imagery show a large envelop of very deep
moisture trailing behind Earl that covers great portions of the
western Caribbean. This moisture is within a broad area of surface
low pressure that support numerous heavy showers and scattered
tstms off NE Nicaragua and Honduras. Scattered showers are
elsewhere N of 12N W of 78W. Fresh to strong SE winds are in the
NW Caribbean from 17N to 21N W of 85W with seas ranging from 8 to 12
ft. The other feature of interest is a tropical wave currently
moving across the Lesser Antilles that will generate showers and
tstms over the NE Caribbean tonight. See the tropical waves
section for further details. The pressure gradient throughout
supports moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere, with the high
end of this range confined to the north-central portions of the
sea.

...HISPANIOLA...

A middle to upper level low is centered over Turks and Caicos
extending a trough S over Hispaniola, thus supporting isolated
showers and tstms over northern Haiti and NW Dominican Republic. The
upper low is forecast to move west and weaken over the next 24
hours. However, a tropical wave currently in the far E Caribbean
will generate showers across the Island starting Friday morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main features in the Atlc are two tropical waves discussed
above. The remainder basin continues under the influence of a
broad surface ridge anchored by a pair of 1025 mb highs, one SW
of the Azores Islands and the other to the SE. Little change
expected the next two days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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