[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 040854
TCDAT5

HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
400 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

The center of Earl made landfall just southwest of Belize City,
Belize near 0600 UTC.  The last reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft included a 700-mb flight-level wind of 85
kt, SFMR and dropsonde winds near 65 kt, and a minimum central
pressure near 979 mb.  Based on these data, the landfall intensity
is estimated to have been 70 kt.  The initial intensity for this
advisory is reduced to 65 kt as Earl is now weakening over land.

The initial motion is 275/13.  A high pressure ridge to the north
of the tropical cyclone should steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward for the next three days or so.  There is some
spread in the track guidance that is significant for the chances of
the system emerging over the Bay of Campeche.  The ECMWF and the
GFS show a more northward motion, which would bring the center over
water.  The UKMET shows a more westward motion, which would keep the
center over southeastern Mexico south of the Bay of Campeche.  The
new forecast track is closer to the GFS and ECMWF in having the
center traverse the southern Bay of Campeche between 36-48 hours.
Overall, the new track is an update of the previous track that lies
near the various consensus models.

Earl should weaken as it crosses Central America and Mexico, and it
is expected to be a tropical depression by the time the center
reaches the Bay of Campeche.  The cyclone is forecast to spend less
than 12 hours over water, so the intensity forecast shows no
re-intensification during that time.  After 48 hours, Earl or its
remnants should move over the mountains of central Mexico, which
should cause the low-level center to dissipate after 72 hours.  It
should be noted that several global models forecast the development
of a tropical cyclone off the Pacific coast of Mexico during the
next five days.  If this occurs, it is likely to be associated with
the remnants of the hurricane, but not a direct continuation of
Earl.

The biggest concern with Earl is rainfall.  Global models depict the
system becoming enveloped within a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre
that will cover much of southern Mexico during the next few days.
This weather pattern will likely lead to copious rains, with
isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 17.3N  88.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 12H  04/1800Z 17.8N  90.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  05/0600Z 18.3N  92.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/1800Z 18.6N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  06/0600Z 19.0N  96.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  07/0600Z 19.5N  99.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND/REMNANT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net