[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031141 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
741 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016

Updated for Tropical Storm Earl information

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 16.3N 84.4W at 03/1200 UTC
or about 105 nm E of Isla Roatan Honduras and about 230 nm ESE of
Belize City Belize moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection is along the coast of
Honduras from 15N-18N between 82W-85W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere over the NW
Caribbean and Central America from 12N-21N between 79W-92W.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and
Earl is likely to become a hurricane before it makes landfall.
Earl is expected to also produce total rain accumulations of 8 to
12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, through Thursday night. A storm surge
will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal
tide levels along the immediate coast of the Honduras Bay Islands,
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 20N34W
to 06N34W moving west 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models.
Wave is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of moisture with
Saharan dry air and dust NW of the wave, as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is west of the wave axis from 05N-10N between 34W-
42W.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
20N47W to 07N49W moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is west of the wave axis from 14N-18N between 48W-53W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 43W-52W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 14N25W to 07N37W to 11N44W. The ITCZ
begins west of a tropical wave near 11N51W and continues to the
coast of South America near 09N60W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are
from 07N-11N between 52W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis is over the northern Gulf of Mexico along
30N from N florida to E Texas. Further south, the leading edge
of precipitation from T.S. Earl has reached the Yucatan Channel
and is spreading west. 10-15 kt mostly easterly winds are noted
over the Gulf. Isolated moderate convection is over S Florida
and the Straits of Florida from 23N-27N E of 82W. Elsewhere,
isolated moderate convection is just entering the eastern Bay of
Campeche also due to the leading edge of precipitation from T.S.
Earl. In the upper levels...an upper level high is centered over
the NW Gulf near 29N94W. A small upper level low is centered
over the N Bahamas near 27N79W enhancing convection over S
Florida. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of
convection over the SE Gulf, and the Yucatan Peninsula due to
T.S. Earl.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The prime focus tonight is T.S. Earl moving through the NW
Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over
the E Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is over the
SW Caribbean, Panama, and Costa Rica, from 08N-11N between 77W-
86W. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered S of
the Cayman Islands near 17N82W. Further east, an upper level low
is centered over the the E Caribbean near 15N62W with strong
subsidence producing fair weather E of 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently, mostly fair weather is over Hispaniola. Expect
scattered showers Wed afternoon and evening during maximum
heating hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the N Bahamas from 24N-27N
between 77W-80W mostly due the small upper level low centered
near 27N79W. A 1028 mb high is centered over the eastern
Atlantic near 34N28W with a ridge axis extending west to N
Florida. Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. See
above. Also of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low
is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N54W enhancing
showers. Expect the tropical waves to move west with convection
for the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA
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