[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 031136
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
800 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016

...EARL ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 84.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
* Bay Islands, Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the
Honduras/Guatemala border.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 84.4 West.  Earl is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track, the core of Earl
is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon,
and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane later
today. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl moves inland.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Earl.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently estimated by a NOAA Hurricane
Hurricane aircraft was 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  These conditions will
reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area by tonight or early Thursday.  Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and
in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico
tonight or early Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night.  Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between
Thursday night and Saturday morning.  Isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico.  These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the
Honduras Bay Islands, Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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