[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 021557
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM EARL IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EARL IS THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 80.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Governments of Mexico and Belize have issued a Tropical Storm
Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/
Guatemala border.

The Government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the entire north coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward
to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico,
southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
The strong tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center has been
tracking across the Caribbean Sea has developed into Tropical Storm
Earl. At 1200 PM EDT (1600 UTC), the center of Earl was located near
latitude 16.3 North, longitude 80.2 West. Earl is moving toward the
west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.  On this
track, the center of Earl will be moving very close to the north
coast of Honduras late tonight and Wednesday and approach Belize and
the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast before Earl reaches the
Yucatan peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force plane was
1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the
warning area by Wednesday night.  Hurricane conditions could begin
in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane watch area Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches
are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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