[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

A gale warning has been issued for the central Caribbean from
15N to 18N between 66W and 69W with E TO SE winds 25 to 35 kt,
and seas 8 TO 11 ft. An ASCAT scatterometer pass at 0120 UTC
over a strong tropical wave indicated gale force winds. A closed
cyclonic circulation at the surface is presently lacking, thus a
tropical storm warning has not been issued at this time. The
tropical wave is moving west across the Caribbean basin at 18
kt. The tropical wave extends from 20N69W to 11N69W. Numerous
strong convection is mostly south of Hispaniola from 14N-19N
between 66W-72W. Scattered showers are elsewhere over Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, and E Cuba. The potential exists for a
tropical storm to form today or Tuesday. Please see the Tropical
Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for
more details.

E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas forecast...that is
listed under the following links...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the
following areas: AGADIR and CANARIAS.

TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
18N36W to 07N37W moving west-southwest at 10 to 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as
depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery.
Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-14N between 38W-41W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N17W to 11N20W to 13N30W to 12N37W to 08N47W
where the ITCZ begins and continues to the coast of South
America at 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the
monsoon trough along the coast of western Africa from 06N-12N
between 14W-26W. Similar convection is from 06N-10N between 41W-
59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis is over the northern Gulf of Mexico along
30N from N florida to E Texas. 10-15 kt SE winds are noted over
the Gulf. Scattered showers remain over the E Gulf of Mexico and
W Cuba from 22N-30N E of 91W. In the upper levels...an upper
level high is centered over the NW Gulf near 29N92W. A small
upper level low is centered N of the Bahamas near 30N77W.
Abundant upper level moisture is over the E Gulf E of 92W.
Strong subsidence is over the W Gulf. Expect over the next 24
hours for the surface winds and convection to increase over
W Cuba, the Straits of Florida, and the SE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The prime focus today is the strong tropical wave and gale
moving through the central Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, 10-
25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with 25 kt winds
along the coast of N Colombia and 10 kt winds over the Yucatan
Channel. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean
from 08N-11N between 77W-84W. In the upper levels, an upper
level high is centered S of Hispaniola near 17N70W. Scattered
showers are over the NW Caribbean N of 14N between 80W-90W.
Expect the tropical wave/ gale to be the dominate weather
producer over the Caribbean Sea for the next three days....HISPANIOLA...

Currently, numerous strong convection is over S Hispaniola with
scattered showers elsewhere. Expect showers and thunderstorms to
continue for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the S Bahamas from 21N-26N
between 73W-77W. A 1024 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 30N58W. A tropical wave is over the central
tropical Atlantic along 37W. See above. Of note in the upper
levels, a small upper level low is centered N of the Bahamas
near 30N77W. Further east, a large upper level low is centered
over the central Atlantic near 25N48W. Expect the tropical wave
along 37W to move west with convection, while a new tropical
wave over W Africa along 15W approaches the Tropical Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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