[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

A gale warning has been issued for the E Caribbean from 15N to
18N between 66W and 69W with E TO SE winds 25 to 35 kt, and seas
8 TO 11 ft. An ASCAT scatterometer pass at 0120 UTC over a
strong tropical wave indicated gale force winds. A closed
cyclonic circulation at the surface is presently lacking, thus a
tropical storm warning has not been issued at this time. The
tropical wave is rapidly moving west across the Caribbean basin
at 25 kt and is generating a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. The tropical wave extends from 20N68W to 11N68W.
Numerous strong convection is south of the Mona Passage from 14N-
18N between 67W-70W. Scattered showers are elsewhere N of 10N
between 64W-79W to include the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and E Cuba. The potential exists for a tropical
storm to form today or Tuesday. Please see the Tropical Weather
Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more
details.

E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas forecast...that is
listed under the following links...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the
following areas: AGADIR and CANARIAS.

TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
16N36W to 07N36W moving west-southwest at 10 to 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as
depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery.
Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-13N between 36W-38W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 15N17W to 13N30W to 08N42W to 08N47W where the
ITCZ begins and continues to the coast of South America at
08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the monsoon
trough along the coast of western Africa from 07N-10N between
12W-24W. Similar convection is from 06N-08N between 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is centered over the W Gulf of Mexico near 28N92W.
5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are noted around the high. Scattered
showers remain over the E Gulf of Mexico and W Cuba from 22N-30N
between 82W-86W. In the upper levels...an upper level high is
centered over the N Gulf near 28N90W. An upper level low is
centered over the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Strong
subsidence is over the W Gulf with upper level moisture
elsewhere. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface high to
be replaced by a surface ridge. Also expect an upper level low
to move NE to N of the Bahamas with increased convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The prime focus tonight is the strong tropical wave and gale
moving through the E Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, 10-25 kt
tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strong winds along
the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds just south of W Cuba.
Isolated moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from 10N-
12N between 75W-84W. In the upper levels, an upper level high is
centered over Hispaniola near 19N70W. Scattered showers are over
the NW Caribbean N of 14N between 82W-90W. Expect the tropical
wave/ gale to be the dominate weather producer over the
Caribbean Sea for the next three days.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are over
Hispaniola. Showers and thunderstorms will continue for the
next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the S Bahamas from 21N-25N
between 72W-77W. A 1024 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 30N56W. A tropical wave is over the central
tropical Atlantic. See above. Of note in the upper levels, an
upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near
25N46W. Expect the tropical wave to move west with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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