[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUND THE AREA OF THE WAVE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 31W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 28W AND 34W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 07N20W TO 07N27W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 09N38W
08N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. FROM ALABAMA AND
87W EASTWARD...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THIS CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W
WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. ONE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N78W...ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W...TO 28N89W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 28N89W...AND IT CONTINUES WESTWARD
BEYOND THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 29N95W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF
THE COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST
AND THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W. A
SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N68W
TO 29N73W AND 27N78W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 27N78W TO
24N83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N83W TO 23N90W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N77W 26N75W
28N71W TO 32N66W. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 26N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N87W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE TWO
COLD FRONTS.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA AT THIS
MOMENT. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N60W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N62W...ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N64W...TO THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA ALONG 66W/67W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE 32N57W 28N58W 22N60W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THIS CENTER COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W
WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND COVER
HISPANIOLA ALONG 69W/70W FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HAITI...WHILE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL
COVER THE REST OF THE ISLAND...AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SITUATION WILL LAST FOR THE FIRST 18
HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA COMPLETELY FROM 18 HOURS
UNTIL 36 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
EAST-TO-WEST DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A SERIES OF
INVERTED TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N73W...CROSSING NEAR THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...TO 07N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
28/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.56 IN
FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0,15 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...
0.07 IN MONTERREY MEXICO...0.03 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.01 IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO AND IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 15N55W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 07N TO 23N
BETWEEN 49W AND 61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM 11N
TO 18N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N27W 23N29W 21N30W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N24W 22N29W 20N31W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 30N21W...27N30W...AND
27N37W...AND 28N44W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT
CONTINUES FROM 28N44W TO 32N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE 32N13W 27N20W
25N30W 25N40W 32N51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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