[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N35W TO 17N52W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT
WITH A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 32W-38W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 32W-35W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
07N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N27W TO 12N33W TO 10N38W TO 05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 22W-29W...AND FROM 06N-11N
BETWEEN 36W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF BASIN THIS EVENING...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WELL TO THE
NORTH OVER THE NE CONUS. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A PAIR OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...ONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AS A
COLD FRONT THEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS A
STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE OTHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 28N89W THEN WESTWARD AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W. THIS FRONT
REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
NORTH OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY
A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N89W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS SE WINDS INCREASE W OF 90W WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURES INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ARE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N62W TO 14N70W AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 11N63W
TO 18N62 WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
60W-69W. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WEST OF 70W IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ALSO NOTED S OF 12N DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 09N ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC
REGION. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MOSTLY MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS OVERALL WIND REGIME IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE AND
RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
32N73W SW TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF
30N60W THAT SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N64W. WHILE
LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITH THE LOW ITSELF...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS INDUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 58W-61W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N47W. ONE
EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGE IS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 32N23W TO 28N40W
TO 30N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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