[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 998 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29.5N93W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 25N91W AND 18N94W. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET N OF
26N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 09N20W AND 06N24W 07N23W AND
05N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N27W TO 07N35W AND 07N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N
TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
SENEGAL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN AN AREA THAT IS BOUNDED
BY THE POINTS FROM 10N20W TO 05N21W TO 04N33W TO 09N20W...AND
FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N
TO 12N BETWEEN 31W AND 33W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 51W AND
60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N41W 08N42W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE U.S.A. GULF
COAST STATES FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 89W AND 100W. THE ENTIRE
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER AND A DEVELOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 1000 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29.5N93W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES AWAY
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE TRIPLE POINT THAT IS NEAR
31N91W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N93W TO 30N88W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N91 TO 28N89W 23N91W AND 18N94W IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 17N TO 18N
BETWEEN 91W AND 93W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 17N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO A 27N67W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO HISPANIOLA...TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT IS AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE BERMUDA-TO-
HISPANIOLA TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD
AT 30 TO 36 HOURS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA SOLIDLY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF HISPANIOLA...AND ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE REST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...
AS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
84W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA  FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 76W AND THE COASTS
OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS INLAND
IN COLOMBIA FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE
BERMUDA-TO-27N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER-TO HISPANIOLA
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N63W...TO A
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N67W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N67W 22N67W TO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 53W AND 58W...FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF AFRICA. THE TROUGH IS
COMPARATIVELY NARROWER ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF IT IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF MOROCCO...AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AND ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT ITS SOUTHERN END. A
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO 31N09W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM
11N NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 11N27W 21N17W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 56W. A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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