[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER TX SUPPORTS A 998 MB LOW OVER THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WITH SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NW
GULF OF 35 TO 40 KT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER THE W GULF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY
MID MONDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THIS AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/ FZNT24 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
05N25W TO 07N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO
09N BETWEEN 14W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AND ALSO FROM 09N TO
16N BETWEEN 16W AND 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TX SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER
THE NW GULF FROM 29N95W TO A 998 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N95W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 23N96W TO THE MEXICO COAST
NEAR 21N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N94W TO 18N95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF A LINE FROM
30N94W TO 20N96W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS COVER THE EASTERN GULF.
FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS COVER THE WESTERN GULF E OF THE COLD
FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S AND E
TO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN 250 NM E OF
THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE JUST E OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS W OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...AND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
COSTA RICA. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JAMAICA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH AND AREAS EAST ARE UNDER
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION...AND WITH
A MODERATELY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 17N63W TO
14N76W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH AND A NEARLY
STATIONARY 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N78W. MAINLY MODERATE TO
FRESH E TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM THE W ATLC
TO SW CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS PORTION OF THE
TROUGH IS LIMITING CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY.
HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 25N66W WITH AN
AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...AND N TOWARD BERMUDA. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A
1010 MB LOW JUST N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 31N61W TO 25N61W...WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH TO 20N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A LARGE AREA FROM 19N TO 31N
BETWEEN 54W AND 68W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N39W TO 10N40W. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE IN THE REGION IS INTERACTING WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS...AND WITHIN 100 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N28W TO 13N37W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
FROM 20N23W TO 18N25W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS
TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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