[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241723
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER SE TX AND TRACK
ACROSS THE NW GULF SUNDAY AND TO THE LOUISIANA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MINIMAL GALE
FORCE FROM 24N TO 29N W OF 94W BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE NW GULF ON SUNDAY. SEAS
OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NE
OVER INLAND LOUISIANA...AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/ FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA OVER THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 04N22W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 04N32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N
BETWEEN 11W AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF ANCHORED
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NE TO OVER THE E CONUS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE S ROCKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS ADVECTING DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER TX MOVING SE TOWARD THE NW GULF COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NW
OF A LINE FROM 24N98W TO 29N90W. E TO SE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SE OVER THE GULF WATERS FROM TX. GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF
STARTING SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE NW
GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...SPREADING SE WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND
VERACRUZ. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NW
CARIBBEAN. THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO A STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N77W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W. UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE W ATLC UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 61W AND
71W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. TRADE
WIND FLOW IS DISRUPTED SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE
TO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM PUERTO RICO...WITH
GENERALLY SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
E CARIBBEAN. FAVORABLE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE ISLAND WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT S TOWARD HISPANIOLA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD HELP TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THAT TIME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS
BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 31N BETWEEN
72W AND 75W. THIS UPPER TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 31N61W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 22N63W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH TO
19N66W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 25N
BETWEEN 52W AND 65W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 28N
BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC. THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N49W TO 10N49W.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N 36W TO 09N35W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS
N OF 11N. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 21N24W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N18W THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO 18N27W.
NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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