[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W ALONG 6N18W 11N31W 8N37W TO 8N41W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 31W-36W AND FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 41W-46W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF ANCHORED
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING N-NE TO OVER THE E CONUS. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF AND COMBINED WITH THE SE SURFACE FLOW
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO...TEXAS...
AND FAR W LOUISIANA. THE E TO SE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS USHERING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EXCEPT
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FLORIDA COAST AND N OF 26N E OF PENSACOLA.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022
MB HIGH OVER NORTH CAROLINA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST UNTIL A
FRONTAL LOW CURRENTLY INLAND OVER TEXAS MOVES INTO THE NW GULF
SUN. NEAR GALE OR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE LOW
OVER THE NW GULF LATE SAT NIGHT. STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER
HISPANIOLA COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-78W INCLUDING E CUBA...
JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS TO
THE MONA PASSAGE ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN 63W-69W INCLUDING THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE FRONT N OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE E SLOWLY THROUGH SAT THEN WEAKEN
ON SUN. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER HISPANIOLA INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE MONA
PASSAGE. THIS FRONT IS MOVING E AWAY THE ISLAND. HOWEVER THE
UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT INTO SUN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY SUN AS THE
FRONT WEAKENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW WELL N OF THE
AREA THROUGH 32N60W TO A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 28N63W TO 22N65W THEN
WEAKENING TO THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 21N WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF
21N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLAND AND PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER
NORTH CAROLINA. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF
20N BETWEEN 27W-55W ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES.
A WEAK SHALLOW 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N23W WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 21N25W THEN W TO 21N29W. THE
LOW IN THE W ATLC WILL MOVE NE DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY E THROUGH SAT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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