[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
14N23W INTO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 11N28W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR
10N46W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N46W TO 09N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N-18N BETWEEN 17W-28W...AND FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 28W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES THE GULF REMAINING ANCHORED OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N96W. AT THE SURFACE...A SHALLOW TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR19N94W TO
23N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF
19N W OF 93W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 23N-26N
BETWEEN 90W-96W. OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN IS
EXPERIENCING FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
THE SE CONUS NEAR 36N83W AT 1029 MB. THE FRESH EASTERLIES WILL
SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCES
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 76W PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR SKIES.
HOWEVER THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS
THE SW BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W-80W. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND S OF 10N...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA. W
OF 76W...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N67W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PROMOTING
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...TRADES REMAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF NW VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 22N NORTH OF
THE ISLAND IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...HIGH
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED AS THE
FRONT IS SLOW TO DISSIPATE. BY THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS
WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHING LINGERING IN THE
ADJACENT COASTAL ATLC WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM
36N66W SW TO A BASE NEAR 26N76W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 32N53W SW TO 23N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N77W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 53W-63W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...RIDGING PREVAILS. ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...A 1029
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N83W IS PROVIDING FRESH TO STRONG E-NE
WINDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WEST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES NEAR
40N28W S-SW TO 22N44W WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW
OCCURRING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING.
FINALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N21W THAT
SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS NEAR 33N16W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO
28N22W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 19W-
24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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