[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PART OF THE FORECASTS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
COVERS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
FROM 94W WESTWARD...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 12
FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE MORE INFORMATION. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 20N SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO
COAST BETWEEN 93W AND 94.5W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 92W AND 97W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N09W IN MOROCCO...TO 30N11W 25N23W
AND 27N30W. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT IS WITHIN 420 NM TO THE WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA
FROM 15N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W. PLEASE REFER TO
THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND
LARGE METAREA II...ON THE WEBSITES WWW.METEO.FR...OR
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM...FOR THE SECTION THAT IS CALLED CASABLANCA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THAT AREA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W...TO 14N19W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER 09N25W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 09N25W TO
08N26W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
12N31W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
11N40W...AND TO 11N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN
16W AND 38W...AND FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 10N TO 15N. A 1013 MB LOW
PRESSURE IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 11.5N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 08N TO 18N BETWEEN 43N TO 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N70W...THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 26N...
TO 24N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT
24N88W AND IT CONTINUES TO 22N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
31N56W 27N61W 24N67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N55W TO 27N60W TO 23N66W 23N81W 17N93W... AND ELSEWHERE IN
MEXICO FROM 21N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N61W TO 20N73W. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N92W 24N90W 21N97W.
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W IN THE EASTERN
COASTAL PLAINS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT
IS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE 27N83W 27N87W 25N91W 22N97W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N92W 21N96W 24N97W. THE TROUGH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH IN ORDER TO HELP TO PRODUCE GALE-
FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 1.49 IN
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.43 IN MERIDA MEXICO...0.18 IN
ACAPULCO...0.06 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.02 IN TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 73W
WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
73W EASTWARD.

PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRST PARAGRAPH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SECTION...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N53W-TO-
SOUTHEASTERN COLOMBIA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 1.24 IN
MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA...0.05 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...0.01 IN GUADELOUPE AND IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CENTRAL
AMERICA-TO-CUBA RIDGE.

CURRENT WEATHER...IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING ARE IN BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
SANTO DOMINGO...IN LA ROMANA...AND IN PUNTA CANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
ARE REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CENTRAL
AMERICA-TO-CUBA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF JAMAICA AND IT WILL
CONTINUE THERE FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. FOR THE NEXT 18
HOURS OR SO...AN ATLANTIC OCEAN/BAHAMAS ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL SEND NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF HISPANIOLA AT THE SAME TIME. THE LAST 12
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA...AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB CONSISTS OF VARIABLE BUT MOSTLY SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS...FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...AND THEN PURELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 25N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 18N57W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N63W...ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF VENEZUELA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLOMBIA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WITHIN 420 NM TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN 240
NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 55W AND 63W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N43W 26N49W 22N55W 19N67W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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